The Destocking Period Of PTA Industry Comes To An End, Polyester Polyester Prices Also Rise

Since July 11, PTA futures prices have fluctuated for more than four months in the low range of 5000 yuan, changing the previous downturn and opening the long lost "flight". Since then, PTA futures prices have hit a new high of 5490 yuan/ton since the middle of March this year. In late July, PTA price growth slowed down and began to oscillate at a high level. In line with this, the price of polyester polyester has also risen in recent years, and the price of some varieties has even increased by 1000 yuan/ton.

In this rare good market, recently, the 14th China International Polyester Forum, sponsored by China Chemical Fiber Industry Association Polyester Professional Committee and China National Chemical Fiber Corporation, and undertaken by China Central Fiber Network (CCFEI) and Taikerong Global Chemical Co., Ltd., was held in Shanghai. People from petrochemical and polyester industries and futures markets at home and abroad gathered together to discuss the price rise and fall and market trend of international crude oil, PTA and polyester for a period of time, analyze the reasons, and predict the market in the second half of the year.

One of the highlights of this session is the "Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA Futures Special Session". In this special session, representatives from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (hereinafter referred to as "Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange"), Singapore Commodity Exchange, Fushan Investment, Kaifeng Investment and other institutions discussed the function of PTA futures tools, how the PTA futures market affects the price and market of the spot market, how to view the recent market of the PTA futures market Hot topics such as the trend of PTA market in the next two months and the second half of the year were discussed in depth.

According to the data, by the end of June this year, the annual capacity of PTA in China was about 48.84 million tons, and the cumulative output in the first half of the year was about 17.412 million tons, an increase of 1.584 million tons over the same period last year, with an increase of 10%.

In terms of phased situation, since the second quarter of this year, several PTA enterprises including Hengli Petrochemical, Hanbang Petrochemical and Pengwei Petrochemical have shut down for maintenance. Especially in June and July, the number of PTA units overhauled in China was significantly higher than that in the same period last year. The capacity of PTA devices overhauled in China in June was about 7.6 million tons, and the capacity of PTA devices overhauled in July was about 8.06 million tons. In the first ten days of July, the capacity involved in the maintenance of devices accounted for about 20% of the total effective capacity of PTA in China.

In this context, for nearly three months, the PTA industry has been in a state of continuous destocking. In the futures market, warehouse receipts continue to flow out, which forms a certain support for the price of the spot market, and the basis is stronger. This trend has continued until the beginning of July.

As we all know, the cost of PTA includes three parts: raw material PX cost, enterprise processing cost (manufacturing cost) and fixed asset depreciation cost. Since the cost of PX is not determined by PTA spot production enterprises, the amount of processing fees usually becomes an important indicator of the profitability of PTA spot production enterprises. Among them, PTA giants such as Yisheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical have great advantages in processing cost control.

Xu Zhilong, the general manager of Hangzhou Shengchun Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., pointed out that if the supply and demand market of PTA was in surplus, the processing fee per ton of products would be at the lower end of 450 yuan; If supply and demand are in balance, the processing fee per ton of PTA will be between 550 yuan and 650 yuan; If the supply and demand are in tight balance, the processing cost per ton of product will be above 650 yuan.

Generally, when the PTA price is lower than the PX cost plus the processing cost, and the processing cost per ton of PTA is below 550 yuan for a long time, the enterprise will often start the shutdown for maintenance. The data shows that the processing fee per ton of PTA spot goods was less than 300 yuan from April to May this year, compared with 517 yuan in the same period of 2016. So low process cost It is an important reason for large-scale maintenance of production equipment in enterprises in June and July.

Zhao Cheng, a senior analyst of China Fiber Network, pointed out that in the first half of the year, PTA output grew rapidly, capacity utilization increased, and capacity load increased by about 6% year on year. The effective operating rate of domestic PTA plants in the first half of the year was as high as 94.8%, if the long-term production stoppages were not included. However, from a phased perspective, as PTA processing fees continued to be low in April, manufacturers began large-scale maintenance, and the PTA market experienced more than three months of adjustment. During this period, the growth rate of PTA output slowed down, especially in June.

Since July, with the completion of plant maintenance of Hanbang Petrochemical and Zhuhai BP, the supply of PTA in the spot market has increased, the de stocking of PTA industry has ended, and the processing profit of enterprises has recovered.

　　 "Recently, the firm price of PTA futures and the low cost have promoted the continuous recovery of PTA spot processing fees, from the lowest 350 yuan/ton to more than 600 yuan/ton, and even to 1000 yuan/ton. Some people say that the processing fees of more than 1000 yuan/ton are on the high side, but this situation should be considered in combination with the situation of previous years, because in the past few years, PTA enterprises have suffered serious losses The observation range will find that the profits when the market supply and demand are in tight balance need to supplement the losses of enterprises when overcapacity exists. " Xu Zhilong said.

Under the current market environment, PTA futures price has become one of the important factors that affect the spot market price and the overall quotation. Because of this, the "Special Session of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA Futures" attracted much attention in this forum. In addition to the relevant representatives of Zheng Commercial Exchange, Singapore Commodity Exchange, several futures companies and investment companies, the relevant responsible persons of dozens of polyester enterprises such as Yisheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical and other domestic PTA spot production "giants" came to the scene.

According to the relevant person in charge of the Non agricultural Products Department of Zheng Commerce Institute, in the first half of the year, the correlation between PTA futures and spot prices reached 0.99, the delivery volume of PTA futures was 750000 tons, and the maximum quantity of warehouse receipts was 1.3 million tons (including credit warehouse receipts), while the quantity of warehouse receipts of futures could basically represent the inventory.

Data shows that in the first half of the year, the average internal price of PTA was 5045.4 yuan/ton, up 556.4 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year. The highest internal price of PTA futures is in the middle of February, about 5710 yuan/ton. Price The low point is about the first ten days of May and the beginning of June, and the price is about 4640 yuan/ton.

The above person in charge of Zheng Commercial Exchange pointed out that, to a certain extent, PTA futures made China's PTA industry realize the transformation from "Made in China" to "Chinese price". As the influence of PTA futures continues to increase, its influence on the price of upstream raw material PX is also increasing, which also affects the market price and export price of polyester fiber and polyester bottle chips to a considerable extent. With PTA futures becoming more and more mature, the effective play of its role has transformed the domestic PTA inventory from "vague" to "prudent", realizing the dominance of PTA social inventory. At the same time, the effective use of PTA futures reduces the inventory risk of enterprises to a certain extent by means of the "combination of false and real" operation, so that enterprises have an additional reference price in business. The person in charge also revealed that PTA futures market maker trading will soon be put into trial operation.

Due to the maturing of PTA futures, it has formed an important impact on the market of polyester industry chain. In this regard, Zhang Youding, Deputy Director of Sinopec Synthetic Fiber Division, has a deep feeling: "From the price perspective, the pricing power of the futures market is increasing. The futures market is a concentrated reflection of the market price of the polyester industry. The futures price increasingly affects the price of the PTA spot market. It is expected that the influence of the futures market on the market will increase in the future."

Practitioners of futures and investment companies are more sensitive to the high correlation of current PTA spot prices, because they are "traders" on the futures market. Often, some PTA Spot production enterprises are involved in specific futures operations and need "traders" training from futures or investment companies.

Liu Jian, senior researcher of energy and chemical industry at Xinhu Futures Research Institute, said: "At present, the price of PTA spot market closely follows the futures price, and PTA futures are becoming more and more active." Han Yaojie, head of the energy and chemical sector of Kaifeng Investment Co., Ltd., said: "After inventory visualization and warehouse receipt visualization in recent years, PTA social inventory visualization is obvious at present."

However, it should be noted that futures instruments have always served the real economy. At the current stage when the domestic PTA market as a whole is still oversupply, enterprises in all links of the polyester industry chain effectively use futures tools in order to better serve the spot production and operation, and try to avoid the risk of product price fluctuations faced by the spot market, such as the risk of rising raw material prices and falling finished product prices, and the risk of inventory depreciation caused by falling PTA prices.

At the same time, due to the growing maturity of PTA futures in the Chinese market, it also has a certain influence in the international market. Zhou Zhou, senior manager of Singapore Mercantile Exchange, said that the PX futures price and PTA futures price of the Singapore Exchange were highly correlated with the PTA futures price of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange.

For more information, please pay attention to the World Clothing, Shoes and Hats Internet Cafe.