March Import And Export Year-On-Year Accident Double Drop Two Quarter Improvement Has Become The Market Consensus.

< p > March import and export data accident double drop, this is the first time since June 2013, the slowdown of China's foreign trade situation is a foregone conclusion, but analysts pointed out that the weak data in March was affected by the high base and the RMB exchange rate factor last year. The two quarter is expected to rebound.

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< p > data released by the General Administration of Customs on Thursday showed that exports in March decreased by 6.6% compared with the same period last year, and imports fell by 11.3% (US dollars) in the same period last year, far less than the expected growth rate of about 4% and the export growth rate of about 7%.

In March, the trade surplus of US $7 billion 710 million was better than the expected small surplus or even a small deficit in the previous market. Exports in the first quarter decreased by 3.4% compared with the previous year, and imports increased by 1.6%; the trade surplus was 16 billion 740 million US dollars.

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< p > "the main reason is the base factor. Last year, a large part was false trade, which made the export growth rate falsely high, especially for the export of Hong Kong, which increased the number of last year's base and lowered the growth rate this year."

Zhou Jingtong, a senior researcher at the Institute of international finance of Bank of China, told the great wisdom news agency. "In March, China's exports to the US, Japan, Europe, ASEAN and other economies were all positive growth, indicating that China's exports are still good, and that the impact of the base factor is obvious."

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In the first quarter, China's bilateral trade in the EU increased by 6.3%, 0.9% to the United States, 2% to ASEAN, and 2.6% to Japan, the P > General Administration of the Customs Department said.

Only the mainland's import and export to Hongkong fell by 33.3%, which directly affected the overall import and export growth of nearly 4 percentage points.

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Compared with the same period last year, the total value of bilateral trade between the mainland and Hongkong increased by 71.2%, accounting for 11.3% of the total value of the mainland's foreign trade. P

If we exclude false trade against Hong Kong and the fall in export growth in 4-5 months, China's foreign trade data will further improve.

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< p > Zhou Jingtong also pointed out that another reason may be related to the exchange rate factors. The General Administration of Customs thinks that < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > > exchange rate factor < /a > (RMB denominated) affects 2.7 points, that is also a great influence.

"Excluding the cardinal factors and the factors affecting exchange rate, the trade figures in the first quarter should also be acceptable."

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< p > Qi Wenju, a macroeconomic analyst at Zhejiang merchants futures, also pointed out that "China's exports in March showed negative growth for two consecutive months compared with the same period in the same period. The quarterly adjustment also has negative growth for two consecutive months. The trend of the economic downturn of the emerging countries has been declining and the double factor of the slowdown in the economic recovery of the developed countries in Europe and the United States has been caused by the end of last year."

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Except for the cardinal factors, China's foreign trade situation is indeed deteriorating, and the domestic economic structure continues to be adjusted. However, the external market substitution effect of emerging market countries is increasingly reflected, and this substitution situation is becoming more and more obvious. "P"

Liu Xuezhi, senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said.

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< p > but Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman of the General Administration of customs, said the data showed that China's foreign trade did encounter some difficulties at present, but this difficulty could not be overestimated.

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"P >" < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > macroeconomy < /a > is no doubt about weakening. However, the US economic recovery is becoming clearer, and it is not too pessimistic for the export situation.

There are seasonal fluctuations in the 1 quarter, which have the effect of combating false arbitrage, as well as the impact of last year's high base.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief macroeconomic analyst at Guoxin Securities, told the great wisdom news agency.

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The latest view of P Australia New Bank also points out that although China's export growth is lower than market expectations, the port cargo throughput data show that China's container export has rebounded since the fourth quarter of last year.

Through field visits, it is also found that the actual export situation in China is much more active than the data show.

"It is estimated that exports will rebound in the two quarter."

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< p > in addition, in the two quarter, the customs leading index rebounded significantly compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The first indicators showed that there might be a rebound in the two quarter.

According to customs data, China's foreign trade export index was 41.7 in March this year, up 0.4 from last month, which is 41.6 higher than the average index from January to March this year, compared with 39.4 in the fourth quarter of last year.

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P, of course, some analysts also pointed out that the recovery in Europe and America is not necessarily beneficial to China, because western countries have been doing the process of Sinicization in recent years, and with the influence of a series of factors such as labor force and exchange rate, China's trade advantage is losing rapidly.

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< p > * persistent surplus of trade surplus, RMB two-way fluctuation condition thickening * * /p >

The continued appreciation of the RMB P exchange rate has reflected more and more obvious negative effects in recent years, and the overall surplus of China's trade has always been the external pressure of RMB appreciation.

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< p > but with the change of conditions, analysts pointed out that due to changes in internal and external conditions, the two-way fluctuation of RMB will become normal in the future. With the decrease of false arbitrage, China may have trade deficit in the non Spring Festival month.

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< p > Zhou Jingtong, a researcher at Bank of China, said that in the past 4 or 5 years, the United States was quantitative easing. The world was in quantitative easing. Capital flows continuously to the mainland, and foreign trade is surplus. That is double surplus.

Double surplus is a positive pressure on RMB.

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"P >" but now internal and external conditions are changing. The United States is withdrawing from QE. Capital flows are not a single direction. Our country is also actively promoting exchange rate reform. Even if foreign trade is surplus for some time, it is not necessarily a capital account.

Under other conditions, it does not mean that the renminbi will appreciate in the future.

Zhou Jingtong said.

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< p > "if the situation of China's capital flows one-way, the trend of RMB depreciation will be temporary, especially if China still has considerable foreign exchange reserves."

Australia and New Zealand bank stressed that "the central bank needs to further encourage capital outflows, including allowing private enterprises and individuals to invest overseas, allowing both the yuan and the US dollar to flow out of the territory.

Only two-way capital flows can really make the RMB exchange rate fluctuate and flexible.

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< p > Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at the China Merchants Securities Development Research Center, pointed out that "a small surplus has psychological support for the exchange rate, because many organizations were worried that trade deficit would occur in March.

The weaker trend of the RMB exchange rate may continue for some time, but it will not weaken in the long run. "

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< p > "now, the impact of the depreciation of" a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" RMB > /a > on exports in March has not yet appeared. "

Jian Ping, chief economic officer of the National Information Center, pointed out earlier that "after the RMB has experienced a gradual devaluation, arbitrage funds are temporarily withdrawn, and the foreign exchange market is looking for the equilibrium level of exchange rate that is in line with the needs of the real economy. A small surplus is a manifestation of a near equilibrium point.

China's processing trade is large and there should be no deficit, especially a big deficit.

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< p > Liu Xuezhi, a researcher at the Bank of China, thinks that the trade surplus in March is not large, and its impact on the RMB exchange rate is relatively limited. It is estimated that the RMB exchange rate will continue to fluctuate in the 2 quarter.

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< p > "with the decision of the central bank in March 15th to expand the floating rate of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, the volatility of the RMB exchange rate in the future should be characterized by a two-way fluctuation rather than a sustained depreciation."

Zhou Jingtong, a researcher at the Bank of China, said: "marketization, two-way fluctuation, reducing intervention and gradually approaching the equilibrium level are the future directions of the RMB."

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