Customs Statistics: Indian Cotton Yarn Exports To China Are Gradually Warming Up

According to customs statistics, in October 2024, China imported 124000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 12% month on month and a decrease of 27% year on year. The number of cotton yarns imported from Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Taiwan increased month on month. The proportion of Vietnamese cotton yarn rose to 61% (56.92% in September), which further expanded its advantages over cotton yarn from other regions; Pakistan's cotton yarn imports accounted for 10%, although 4 percentage points lower than that of the same period in 2023, it still ranked second; India's cotton yarn import quantity and proportion not only exceeded Uzbekistan's cotton yarn again (India's cotton yarn accounted for 5%, 1 percentage point higher than Uzbekistan's cotton yarn), but also returned to the top three. The gap between India's cotton yarn import quantity and Pakistan's cotton yarn import quantity narrowed, and the momentum of catching up was strong.

Some weaving mills and cotton yarn traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and other coastal areas have reported that since November, Indian cotton yarn inquiry and transaction have been slightly better than cotton yarn from Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Indonesia and other places. In particular, medium and high configuration siro spinning, compact spinning and coarse count package floating ring spinning have been relatively active, but Indian high count ordinary carding yarn The shipment of combed yarn continues to be weak, with little market value.

According to the industry analysis, although there is still a large gap between India's cotton yarn imports and Vietnam's cotton yarn imports in November (Vietnam has a large number of Chinese textile enterprises, and cotton yarn exports to China have the advantages of tariff, land freight, low and timely transportation, etc, It rose to the second place in the source country of China's cotton yarn import in the current month, and gradually left behind Uzbekistan's cotton yarn import.

Why did India's cotton yarn imports stabilize and recover from October to November? The industry analysis is related to the following three factors:

1、 Compared with Pakistan cotton yarn and Uzbekistan cotton yarn, the cost performance of Indian cotton yarn has gradually recovered since October. Since the second half of 2024, the operating rate of Indian cotton mills has remained high, coupled with the continuous decline of spot cotton quotations such as S-6 and J34 (cotton prices in some states have been lower than MSP), so the FOB and CNF prices of cotton yarn have dropped again and again (32 cotton yarns in India were quoted at 2.66 dollars/kg in late November). Pakistan is facing a tight supply of domestic cotton prices and a shortage of high-grade and high index cotton, plus the depreciation of the rupee, The price of cotton yarn is not competitive enough.

2、 Indian yarn mills and cotton yarn exporters increased their shipments and sales to the Chinese market to offset the decline in transactions in other markets. On the one hand, near the end of the year, the demand for shipping within Asia will also further increase, which will bring container shortage and rising freight pressure to Southeast Asia's shipping; On the other hand, Indian brand yarn mills and small enterprises are worried about the imposition of tariffs on Indian imports by the United States in 2025, and they are rushing to reduce their inventories.

3、 The quality stability of Pakistan cotton yarn and Central Asia cotton yarn has declined. In order to improve the competitiveness of traceability orders, cloth factories have signed contracts and purchased from major Indian factories. Affected by weather factors, Pakistan's cotton grade and quality indicators will decline significantly in 2023/24, which is not conducive to spinning high matching white bleached cotton yarn. Domestic enterprises will increase inquiry and order for Indian cotton yarn from the perspective of demand and market.