Market Observation: Weak Market Confidence In Cotton Yarn Market

The weekly settlement price of the main contract of cotton futures this week was 13895, with a weekly increase or decrease of 2.85%; The closing price of spot index 3128B was 14965 yuan/ton, up or down 0.65% compared with last week; The cotton of the North Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps is becoming more and more rare, and the price is also stronger than that of cotton in other places.

The closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn futures was 19610, with weekly rise and fall of 1.90%. Xinjiang Cotton 21/31 level double 29 corresponds to the price difference of Xinjiang Kuji of 900-1400 yuan/ton for the main contract and 1300-1600 yuan/ton for the mainland. The Jinjiu market is more than half. At present, the overall order of textile enterprises has increased, but it is still weak compared with the same period of previous years. The pressure on finished product inventory has not decreased, generally reaching about a month, forming downstream sales pressure, which still makes it difficult to increase yarn prices. At present, the overall operating rate of the downstream weaving industry has improved, but the order situation has been limited and the market confidence is weak. The starting of dyeing and finishing industry also rebounded, but the willingness to continue to improve was not strong, and the enterprise extended the delivery date of production. The overall industry confidence is still insufficient, and the trend of the commodity market is still to be observed.

According to the survey of more than 90 designated textile enterprises nationwide by the China Cotton Early Warning System, the operating rate of textile enterprises rose month on month in August, the output of yarn and cloth increased, the inventory of finished products declined, and the inventory of raw materials increased slightly.

According to the statistics of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the growth progress and picking progress of cotton plants in the United States are both ahead of the level in the same period in recent years, but the deviation rate of seedling growth in the United States is rising again month on month. Judging from the situation in Texas, the recent weather continues to be sunny and dry, and the local moisture content has become worse again. However, because the new cotton in Texas has entered the boll opening period, the water demand has decreased compared with the previous period, and the seedling situation has not turned worse. At present, all cotton areas are in the boll opening period. Stable weather conditions and appropriate rainfall will ensure that the cotton bolls are fully mature.

The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% - 5.00%, which was more than the market expected. This is the first rate cut since the Federal Reserve started this round of tightening cycle in March 2022, and it implied that it would reduce by 50 basis points this year.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a closely watched press conference. He said that the Federal Reserve was not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and also warned not to regard sharp interest rate cuts as a regular rhythm in the future. His speech revealed hawkish tendencies.

Later, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate resolution and release the meeting minutes. In addition, the US current account in the second quarter, the annualized total sales of existing houses in August and the number of initial jobless claims after the quarterly adjustment last week will also be announced. Affected by this, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has risen to 7.05, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar once fell below 7.3 before January.

One of the most basic common sense is that the more the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the less pressure will be on all walks of life in China. Of course, some people will worry that our asset prices at this stage will be copied at the bottom. Before the RMB has no pricing power, we will all face the problem of cheap dollars flooding in. But before our own system matures, should we hold on to assets and not rise?

The maturity of the RMB system must be achieved through practice, not perfect design. Fortunately, the coldest time of winter has passed, so how long before the snow melts in early spring is worth looking forward to.