Global Inflation Declined Slowly. In March And March, The Retail Performance Of The World'S Major Clothing Markets Was Stable

In April this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global economic growth forecast to 2.8% in 2023 in its latest World Economic Outlook. IMF believes that this year's economic slowdown is mainly concentrated in developed economies, and about 90% of the developed economies will experience a decline in economic growth; However, some emerging markets and developing economies are recovering, and China's growth momentum is optimistic.

At present, global inflation is slowly declining, but financial risks are on the rise, and economic growth is still at a historical low. From March to March this year, clothing retail sales in major markets around the world showed stable performance, and some countries such as Singapore and China resumed rapid growth.

　　 01

In March 2023, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 5% year on year, falling to the lowest level in nearly two years, and the inflation situation continues to ease. In March, the successive failures of two American banks triggered banking turmoil. However, the Federal Reserve chose to continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to fight against inflation. Some analysts said this might further aggravate the bank run panic. In the same month, the total retail sales in the United States fell 1% month on month to 691.67 billion US dollars. With the tightening of the financial environment and continued inflation, American consumption retreated rapidly after the strong start of this year. In the same month, the retail sales of clothing (including shoes) in the United States reached US $25.89 billion, down 1.7% month on month and 1.8% year on year, showing negative growth for two consecutive months.

In February 2023, Canada's inflation rate dropped significantly to 5.2%. In the same month, the total retail sales in Canada increased by 4.3% year on year; The sales of clothing products were 2.89 billion Canadian dollars (about 2.12 billion US dollars), up 4.9% month on month and 11.1% year on year.

　　 02

According to the data released by Eurostat, due to the cooling of energy inflation, the euro zone's CPI moderated in March to 6.9% from 8.5% last month, but the core inflation rate excluding energy and food rose slightly to a record level of 5.7%. For this reason, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points in March to continue to curb inflation.

In February 2023, the total retail sales of the 27 EU countries decreased by 3.1% year on year and 0.9% month on month; Retail sales in 19 countries in the euro area fell 3.1% year on year and 0.8% month on month, a further increase compared with the previous month. According to the Economic Forecast for the Winter of 2023 released by the European Commission on February 13, the economic growth expectations of the EU and the Eurozone this year were raised to 0.8% and 0.9% respectively, and the inflation rate would be reduced to 6.4% and 5.6% respectively.

Although the European economy will continue to encounter geopolitical, energy crisis and other risk challenges in 2023, the European Commission believes that European countries have shown resilience in coping with the impact of economic downturn. The EU region may avoid economic recession in 2023, and the inflationary pressure will be further alleviated.

In February 2023, the retail sales of German clothing increased by 2% year on year; Dutch clothing retail sales increased 9.8% year on year. In the same month, France's overall retail sales fell 4.1% year on year; The retail sales of textile, clothing and leather products reached 4.08 billion euros (about 4.51 billion dollars), a slight increase of 0.3% year on year, which was flat month on month. The winter clothing discount season ended in February failed to boost French clothing consumption as expected. Influenced by the inflation crisis, online shopping competition, the rise of the second-hand market and other factors, some French "old brand" clothing brands went bankrupt one after another, and the French clothing industry is facing a cold winter.

In March, the sales of textile, clothing and footwear products in Britain reached 5.42 billion pounds (about 6.76 billion dollars), up 11.3% year on year and 24.1% month on month.

　　 03

According to the latest Asia Pacific economic outlook released by the IMF, the adverse factors of the Asian economy are weakening, or a strong economic recovery will be achieved this year. The report predicts that the growth rate of the Asia Pacific economy will increase from 3.8% last year to 4.6% this year, becoming a bright spot in the context of the global economic slowdown.

In February 2023, Japan's core CPI increased by 3.1% year on year, the first slowdown in core inflation in 13 months, indicating that the energy subsidy measures previously introduced by the Japanese government began to play a role. In the same month, Japan's overall retail sales grew 7.3% year on year; The sales of textile, clothing and apparel reached 566 billion yen (about 4.24 billion dollars), up 8.9% year on year.

In February, Turkey's inflation rate reached 55.18%, still high. In Turkey, the retail sales of textiles, clothing and footwear increased by 10.7% year on year and decreased by 4.5% month on month.

Singapore's overall retail sales grew 12.7% year on year in February this year, and sales in almost all retail industries increased year on year in that month. In the same month, the retail sales of clothing and footwear in Singapore increased by 38.1% year on year and 10.5% month on month.

In March this year, China's CPI rose 0.7% year on year, and the growth rate fell further than that of last month. In the same month, the sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles above the designated size in China reached 116.4 billion yuan, up 17.7% year on year. In the first quarter of this year, the sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles above the designated size increased by 9% year on year, which exceeded the growth level of retail sales of consumer goods and achieved a rapid recovery. Since this year, the IMF, the United Nations, the World Bank and other international organizations have raised China's economic growth expectations. With the optimization and adjustment of China's epidemic prevention and control measures, China's economy is expected to achieve a strong rebound.

　　 04

　　 Oceania – Australia

In February, Australia's overall retail sales fell into weakness, with a month on month increase of only 0.2%. Under the influence of the Federal Reserve of Australia's massive interest rate hike, Australian families began to tighten their spending. In that month, the retail sales of clothing, footwear and personal products in Australia reached A $2.98 billion (about US $1.97 billion), up 6.2% year on year and 0.6% month on month.

　　 Africa – South Africa

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In February this year, the sharp rise in food prices pushed South Africa's inflation rate to 7%. In that month, the retail sales of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather products in South Africa were R 15.01 billion (about US $820 million), up 5.5% year on year.

(Source: China Textile International Capacity Cooperation Enterprise Alliance)