Double Carbon Strategy Promotes Low Carbon Of Automobile Industry

With the proposal of "double carbon" strategy, relevant ministries and commissions actively respond and vigorously promote the green and low-carbon transformation in the field of transportation, which ushers in new opportunities for the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. The goal of "double carbon" sets a timetable for the transformation of automobile industry from extensive production to high-quality development with low-carbon intelligent technology as the core.

"With the development of new energy vehicles in China today, we should pay more attention to technological innovation. Without technological innovation, the leading industry is unsustainable." on September 9, Ouyang Minggao, academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of China electric vehicle 100 people's Association, said at the high-end Seminar on automobile technology innovation and policy recommendations in the era of "power diversification", China's new energy vehicle industry should promote diversified market breakthrough and grasp the trend of integrated technology.

According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in the first eight months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.813 million and 1.799 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9 times. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has risen to about 11%.

It is worth mentioning that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased to 17.8% in August, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is close to 20%. According to this development trend, China is expected to achieve the medium and long-term planning target of 20% market share of new energy vehicles in 2025 ahead of schedule.

According to the "energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0" compiled by China Automotive Engineering Society, the automotive industry will realize the electric transformation by 2035, and all the traditional energy powered passenger vehicles will be hybrid electric vehicles, and new energy vehicles will become the mainstream. The sales of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will account for 50% respectively.

Electrification does not mean that there is only one technical route of pure electric. Innovative power technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell, plug-in hybrid, ordinary hybrid, super hybrid and integrated power technology all have their own technical advantages and market demand, and there is also room for technological innovation and improvement.

From a technical point of view, under the guidance of the general direction of electrification, the automotive industry has formed a diversified power technology route, and has truly entered the era of power diversification.

Continue to promote energy saving of traditional fuel vehicles

Under the "double carbon" strategy, the automobile industry should first achieve carbon peak.

It is not realistic to realize the overall carbon reduction of China's automobile industry and realize the rapid realization of 100% electrification, and it is not in line with the medium-term and long-term goals of the development of the automobile industry. For a long time in the future, fuel vehicles will still dominate the market. Therefore, the low-carbon automotive industry, first of all, is to continuously promote the reduction of fuel consumption of traditional fuel vehicles.

"Reducing the fuel consumption of fuel vehicles is the primary task for the automotive industry to achieve the goal of" dual carbon. "The late Wang Binggang, an authoritative expert in the field of new energy vehicles in China, once said.

In fact, China's automobile industry has been committed to developing cleaner, more environmentally friendly automotive products, in order to reduce all kinds of pollution emissions, emission standards continue to be strict. On July 1, 2020, the national standard 6A will be implemented nationwide, and the national standard 6B will be implemented on July 1, 2023.

Although the relevant departments have done a lot of work in upgrading emission regulations, there is also a "double points" policy to promote traditional car companies to reduce fuel consumption of fuel vehicles. However, it is still necessary to pay more attention to the fuel saving and consumption reduction of traditional vehicles.

Wan Xinming, general manager of China Automotive Engineering Research Institute, said that in order to continue to promote the development of energy-saving and emission reduction technologies for fuel vehicles, a lot of work needs to be done in terms of various energy-saving technologies such as aerodynamic optimization and electronic and electrical energy-saving.

From the global point of view, the emissions of traditional fuel vehicles in Europe, Japan and other regions are significantly lower than those of China, and the main reason is the popularity of hybrid electric vehicles. Especially the Japanese cars represented by Toyota Honda hybrid technology and Nissan E-power technology have achieved good results in energy saving and emission reduction.

At present, the three auto companies are also vigorously promoting the relevant models to market in China, so as to alleviate the pressure of "double points" in the Chinese market.

"In the transformation of new energy, electrification is only one of the directions. For quite a long time, China's market will be the coexistence of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, but the overall trend is to shift to the direction of electric drive. China's market with enough volume and enough consumer demand will provide suitable growth space for all kinds of power lines, and a hundred flowers will blossom in technology." On September 9, Chen haocun, assistant general manager of Dongfeng Nissan Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter.

Passenger car "two legs" walking

After years of development and market test, the new energy passenger vehicle market has identified two main technical routes, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and pure electric vehicle.

On the whole, the pure electric passenger car market is now showing a dumbbell shaped market pattern of "big at both ends and small in the middle", showing stronger market competitiveness in the high-end market and the low-end market.

Ouyang Minggao pointed out that A00 class vehicles have basically realized pure electric, and A00 fuel vehicles can't match pure electric performance. Next, the market of A0 class electric vehicle products will start to break out.

However, he believes that in the A-class and B-class market, plug-in hybrid has a bright future. Because, in the range of 100000-200000, customers require long mileage, good performance and low cost. Plug in power can better compromise these contradictory demands than pure electricity. In addition, C-class and D-class luxury models, pure electric has more advantages.

"On the whole, the pure electric market is still" crowded on both sides ". In the future, we should" squeeze "from luxury cars and economy cars to the middle mainstream car market. At present, the intermediate mainstream cars may be plug-in hybrid vehicles with long pure electric mileage. This kind of plug-in hybrid market covering the common mileage in urban areas is still very large. It will be very popular in the market before 2035, and it will eat up those fuel vehicles The market, "says Ouyang Minggao.

At present, there are some differences in the selection of technical routes for new energy vehicles. In the passenger car market, according to different technical routes, automobile enterprises need to improve the layout according to their own advantages.

"I don't recommend that new car makers engage in plug-in hybrid (technically speaking, extended range is also a special kind of plug-in power), because the engine is the weakness of the new car making force, and it is difficult to meet the fuel consumption and emission requirements if you choose an engine randomly from the market. I suggest that we still take the route of pure electricity and intelligence, which should be a good choice for new car makers," Ouyang Minggao said.

He believes that large independent vehicle enterprises should develop pure electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in parallel.

"In terms of technology development cycle of foreign-funded enterprises is too long, reaction speed is too slow, and traditional inertia is too big, so it is difficult to change roles. From the perspective of products, pure electric models of domestic automobile enterprises are becoming more and more fashionable, but electric vehicles produced by foreign enterprises can not be distinguished as electric vehicles or fuel vehicles. There are also some foreign enterprises whose power technology is too diversified. Fuel cells, hydrogen internal combustion engines, hybrid power, and Plug in, pure electric and other technologies have not a main direction, which is relatively high risk for the fast dynamic change of China's market, "Ouyang Minggao said.

Prospect of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles

From the perspective of use scenarios, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will take the lead in commercialization in the field of commercial vehicles.

On September 7, Hyundai Motor Group officially released "hydrogen vision 2040" at the global online conference of "hydrogen wave" on hydrogen day. By 2028, Hyundai Motor Group will become the world's first automobile manufacturer with hydrogen fuel cell system for all its commercial models. Then, it will begin to increase the marketization in the field of passenger cars.

"We made a basic judgment about ten years ago that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are mainly used in commercial vehicles. Therefore, our country has long formulated the technical route for pure electric cars and fuel cells for commercial vehicles. Generally speaking, pure electric vehicles are vehicles that replace gasoline engines, and fuel cells are vehicles that replace diesel engines." on September 9, 2008, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCS) are used to replace diesel engines, Li Jianqiu, Dean of the school of vehicles and transportation of Tsinghua University, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter.

However, he also said that by 2025, when the cost of fuel cells will drop to 1 / 3-1 / 4 compared with now, the durability improvement will also have the possibility of equipping cars in northern regions, for example.

"The mainstream of passenger cars is still pure electric, and fuel cells are only suitable for large three row MPV and SUV with long mileage requirements, or in the cold regions of Northeast China. The commercialization of fuel cell vehicles in our country has begun, and the number of fuel cell vehicles will increase significantly in the next few years. Moreover, the performance and cost of fuel cell vehicles will also be reduced It will be further improved, "said Li.

The development of China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles also ushered in the spring breeze of policy. At the end of August this year, according to the Shanghai Economic and Information Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology, the national development and Reform Commission and the State Energy Administration officially approved the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles in Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration, Shanghai Urban Agglomeration and Guangdong urban agglomeration as the first batch of demonstration urban agglomerations.

The key point of the demonstration policy is to speed up the breakthrough of technical bottleneck and improve the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry chain. The demonstration policy sets different conversion coefficients of standard cars for passenger cars, buses and freight cars, and sets reward points standard for "eight key parts" to focus on promoting the R & D breakthrough and industrial application of core components.

It is worth noting that the concept of demonstration urban agglomeration is adopted for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which is different from the promotion plan of "1000 vehicles in ten cities" launched in 2009.

"The policy of" one thousand vehicles in ten cities "is mainly to subsidize automobile enterprises, but this time, the demonstration task is jointly carried out by several urban agglomerations or a region of the local government. Because the industrial chain of fuel cell vehicles is very long, it needs to solve the problem of hydrogen supply, hydrogenation, and vehicle itself, as well as the technology and industrial chain of fuel cell vehicles Relatively speaking, it is much longer and more complicated, "Li said.

He believes that the main reason for adopting urban agglomeration demonstration is to adapt measures to local conditions. First, we need to find cheaper and more affluent areas to demonstrate. Second, in this region, the related foundation of the whole fuel cell industry chain should be relatively perfect, and the enterprise's ability and technological ability should be relatively complete. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other three regions are in the leading position in terms of fuel cell technology, R & D and industry.

"Through the demonstration of urban agglomerations, we should improve the quality, increase the quality, and at the same time, we should expand the quantity and improve the technical level, so as to lay a foundation for the large-scale promotion and application of hydrogen fuel cells in the future," Li Jianqiu said.