80% Of The Sales Of Real Estate Enterprises Exceeded That Of The Same Period Last Year, And There Were More Than 10 Billion "Hidden Goods" In Single City Of Real Estate Enterprises

The report card of real estate enterprises in the first 11 months has been issued. According to the data of the third-party organization Kerry research center and Yihan think tank, more than 80% of the real estate enterprises accumulated sales performance from January to November exceeding the same period last year, and more than 60% of the real estate enterprises have completed or approached the annual sales target.

A fact is that in November, Shanghai's new housing market was in serious short supply, and the turnover of second-hand housing reached a four-year high. After the housing market in Dongguan and its surrounding areas rose sharply, the housing market in East China and its surrounding areas rose sharply.

At the national market level, there are ups and downs. Affected by the policy, Beijing's housing prices fell by 2.06% month on month in November. In November, there were 28 cities with a month on month decline in house prices. Among them, Jinan had the largest decline, reaching 7.49%, and Langfang and Sanya had a decline of more than 4%.

For real estate enterprises, speeding up the completion of the year's target may help further investment and land acquisition, especially under the three red lines, the real estate enterprises with fast return of funds will have more opportunities.

60% of the real estate enterprises will complete the annual target ahead of schedule

In November, the monthly sales volume of top 100 real estate companies increased by 5.1% month on month, and the year-on-year growth rate fell to 21.4% from the high in August. By the end of November, more than 60% of the real estate enterprises had reached the annual target, and the completion rate of some real estate enterprises was less than 85%. According to insiders, considering the current downward pressure of the market as a whole and the pressure on the sales rate, the real estate enterprises in December are still stepping up their sales promotion and marketing in order to sprint the annual performance targets.

Take Shanghai as an example, according to the data of fangduo, the average price of house prices in Shanghai on December 7 was 56000 yuan / square meter, up 137 yuan / square meter on a month on month basis and 4568 yuan / square meter on a year-on-year basis. In the past week, Shanghai has approved 13 pre-sale permits.

From the perspective of enterprise performance, in November 2020, more than 70% of the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved year-on-year performance improvement in a single month. By the end of November, nearly 80% of the total performance of real estate enterprises exceeded the same period of last year, achieving year-on-year growth. Specifically, this month, the sales of central enterprises were strong, and poly, China shipping, China Resources and investment promotion performed more outstanding, and the scale of single month performance increased significantly year-on-year. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of China Merchants and China Shipping reached 63% and 52.4% respectively.

From the perspective of the target completion of real estate enterprises, by the end of November, over 60% of the real estate enterprises with performance targets set in the year achieved a target completion rate of more than 90%.

However, there is a certain pressure on small and medium-sized real estate enterprises to achieve the annual target. Yan Yuejin also pointed out that due to the different layout strategies, some real estate enterprises achieved a slightly weaker sales target than others. For example, the development of Rongsheng in the market around Beijing will naturally affect its sales.

Since the fourth quarter, although the real estate enterprises have increased the supply and marketing efforts, but the overall market pressure is still large. In December, they still need to step up the supply, accelerate the de chemical and sprint the annual target. At the end of the year, this wave of small upsurge in Yangtze River Delta cities benefited from the backward supply rhythm of real estate enterprises, and at the same time, the overall performance scale of real estate enterprises achieved year-on-year growth. However, due to the regulatory policy to control the pace of push, the actual level of the market de conversion rate is under pressure, and the year-on-year growth rate of the top 100 real estate enterprises has continued to decline since August. For the real estate enterprises which are still a certain distance from the overall goal, they still need to step up supply and speed up the removal in December.

Inventory risk of large real estate enterprises rises

In 2020, the smooth cash withdrawal of real estate enterprises is due to the regulation and control, which leads to the limited supply rhythm of real estate enterprises and the rising inventory pressure of real estate enterprises. This phenomenon deserves attention.

Industry insiders pointed out that under the "control" of relevant policies, although house price changes can be controlled in the short term, it will also lead to the situation that just in demand buyers "can't buy". At the same time, the inventory of real estate enterprises is overstocked.

A person from a listed real estate enterprise said that the pressure of rising house prices in various hot cities has always existed, even affecting the normal market operation of enterprises. For the development of high-end real estate, low land prices in the early years, and now developing a lot of "online red plate" enterprises, regulation and control can be described as mixed. For example, it said that the company could have delivered a better report card in a certain city, but it still has 10 billion worth of inventory to be disposed of.

At the macro level, considering the third-party institutions and media reports, in the first half of 2020, the total inventory size of listed real estate enterprises was 14.3 trillion yuan, which was 13.99 trillion yuan at the end of 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, and the growth rate was 3.4 percentage points lower than that of last year.

Compared with the same period of last year, the proportion of total assets of real estate enterprises increased by 4.48% in the first half of 2020. If the proportion of inventory is too high, it will affect the cash flow and profit of real estate enterprises. In the face of the industry's interrogation on the profit margin of real estate enterprises, the next important task for the head real estate enterprises will also include how to actively remove and adjust the asset structure.

From the sales situation from January to November, many real estate enterprises have actually completed the annual targets, such as Evergrande, Jinmao, Binjiang, etc., but some real estate enterprises still have pressure on the annual targets compared with the same period of last year. The main reason for this situation is that under the influence of the epidemic situation at the beginning of the year and the "three red lines", the marketing strategies adopted by different real estate enterprises are different, which leads to different sales targets. In addition, with the change of market development trend, at the beginning of this year, many real estate enterprises have taken the initiative to reduce the sales target, which is also one of the factors affecting the achievement of sales target.

According to the recent survey conducted by Kerui Research Center, the real estate market of the third tier cities in Central China recovered briefly in September and October, and the demand for home ownership came in, but the proportion of transactions was significantly less than that in previous years. Since November, the market has turned cold in an all-round way, and the wait-and-see mood of house buyers has become more and more intense. It is generally expected that house prices will turn down, and the pressure on those real estate enterprises to push the plate is increasing.