Land Market Cooling After Land Sales Of 3.2 Trillion In October Before 50 Cities

After the outbreak of new crown pneumonia in 2020, the land market as well as the property market in some cities will become more and more popular.

According to the Central Plains data, as of October 26, the land sales of 9 cities in China exceeded 100 billion yuan, and the land sales of 50 major cities were 3.2 trillion yuan, up 18.8% year on year, all breaking the historical record.

The impact of the epidemic on the land market seems to have disappeared, and the land market turnover has continued to rise.

However, after the central bank and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development convened a meeting of real estate enterprises on August 20, the financing of real estate enterprises under the "three red lines" is expected to be tightened, and the land market has cooled down. Especially in the first and second tier cities, transactions in September fell by about 30% month on month.

Generally speaking, land market and land price are the forerunner of sales market. With the land premium rate going up in 2020, it will be difficult for house prices to fall in the next two years.

Three seasons before the fire

Many people still remember the local shooting in Shanghai on February 20 when the epidemic prevention and control was stuck. The 1.8 million square meter complex plot of Xuhui Binjiang in Shanghai was shot by Hongkong land for a total price of 31.05 billion yuan, becoming the new king of Shanghai.

This sends a signal of optimism. In the second quarter, especially after May, some real estate enterprises judged that the market would stabilize rapidly under the epidemic situation, the policy stimulated the property market, the enthusiasm for land acquisition was significantly improved, and the overall market continued to rise.

In April, Siming District of Xiamen and other places once again appeared with the highest land price of 10 billion yuan, making the land market heat continue to rise.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that although the epidemic has a great impact on the capital chain of real estate enterprises, the difficulty of domestic financing has been reduced. In order to pursue the market scale, some real estate enterprises, especially many enterprises with little land acquisition in recent years, have begun to actively acquire land.

In Hangzhou and Suzhou, Ali and Jingdong also won two pieces of land at the bottom price. Picture vision China

With the first recovery of sales in Shenzhen and other places, even "magic rise", the heat of the property market also drives the land market to continue to warm up. From May to October, the market volume of major cities in China recovered significantly compared with that in the first quarter. The online signing volume increased by 20% on average year-on-year. At present, most cities have gradually recovered to the average level before the epidemic.

With the sales return, developers can more actively take land. According to the data, in the first three quarters of 2020, the total supply and demand of land in 100 large and medium-sized cities in China has increased year-on-year, and the floor price has also increased year-on-year. The planned construction area of land supply reached 116559 million square meters, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year; the planned construction area of land transaction reached 975.7 million square meters, and the land transaction amount reached 3187.9 billion yuan, an increase of 11.98% year-on-year.

Among them, the land market in the first tier cities is obviously warming up, and all indicators are increasing year on year. The land supply area increased by 53.44% year-on-year, the planned building area of land transaction increased by 32.53% year-on-year, and the land transaction amount increased significantly by 57.9%.

Second tier cities are relatively mild. The land transaction area was 41.279 million square meters, a slight increase of 3.22% year-on-year, but the transaction amount decreased slightly by 0.97% and the land premium rate decreased by 1.65%.

In terms of quarter, affected by the epidemic situation, the land market was cold and the land transaction scale decreased significantly in the first quarter. After the second quarter, as the epidemic situation improved and the pace of high-quality land entering the market accelerated, the land market warmed up and reached the highest point in the second quarter.

Up to now, there are two 200 billion land selling cities in Shanghai and Hangzhou, and seven hundred billion billion land selling cities such as Guangzhou, Beijing and Nanjing. More than 22 cities have sold more than 50 billion land, setting a new historical record.

China's top 20 cities with land transfer amount totaled 2025.38 billion yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year. Among the first tier cities, the land market in Shanghai and Guangzhou has been warming up obviously. The land transaction amount of Shanghai in the first three quarters reached 233.29 billion yuan, up 74.6% year on year.

"Three red lines" hanging ceiling

There are also hidden worries in the fire.

In August, the land market took a sharp turn, with transactions in 100 cities falling by 32.15% month on month, a sharp decline compared with the peak in June.

Zhao Xiuchi, deputy president of the real estate association, believes that the main influence of the new real estate association is the "Red Road". In addition to monitoring the asset liability ratio, net debt ratio and cash short debt ratio of real estate enterprises, more strict fund control should be carried out for real estate enterprises whose land sales ratio exceeds 40% in the past year or the net cash flow generated by operating activities in the past three years has been negative continuously.

At the mid-term performance meeting of Vanke on August 28, Zhu Jiusheng, President of Vanke, said that the company would seriously study and adapt to the "three red lines" as soon as possible and carry out the implementation according to the requirements; Xia Haijun, President of Evergrande, and others also said that they would move closer to the indicators.

In this context, Beijing's land market took the lead in the obvious cold, frequent bottom price transactions. On September 2, Beijing sold two more "unlimited price" homesteads at the bottom price, with a total transaction amount of 8.306 billion yuan.

Zhao Xiuchi pointed out that under the tight financing control situation, if the enterprise fails to meet the regulatory requirements, it can not carry out financing, sustainable production and profitability. Therefore, many enterprises that have touched the red line have no possibility of financing, so they will no longer attack the land market. In the short term, the land market in Beijing will be in a downturn.

In September, the land market of the whole country cooled down. A total of 296.6 billion yuan of land was transacted in 100 large and medium-sized cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.16% and a month on month decrease of 9.20%; the planned construction area of residential land was 92.14 million square meters, a decrease of 10.47% on a month on month basis, of which the planned building area of residential land was 45.48 million square meters, down 13.6% month on month. The average premium rate was 13.02%, down 2.19 percentage points month on month, and still increased by 5.25 percentage points year on year.

The cooling of the first and second tier cities is more obvious. Compared with the same period of last month, the transaction amount of urban land decreased by 2.89 billion square meters, an average decrease of 2.89 billion square meters, or an average decrease of 11.29% compared with the same period of last month.

In the whole three quarters, the land market's volume and price fell, the transaction amount decreased by 27.61% month on month, and the land transaction floor price decreased by 310 yuan / square meter month on month.

A person from the investment department of a large-scale real estate enterprise thinks that the "three red lines" have an immediate impact on the financing of real estate enterprises and the land market. Because of the strict monitoring of expectations and the decline of financing, we dare not take the land rashly.

Recently, there are new signs in the land market. Taking Alibaba, Jingdong, Xiaomi and other Internet industry companies as the representatives, for example, on October 28, Xiaomi took a commercial land t107-0092 of Shenzhen Houhai headquarters base with a base price of 531 million, adjacent to Tencent and Ali.

In June, today's headlines won Houhai headquarters base plot at the bottom price of 1082 million; in Hangzhou, Suzhou, Ali and Jingdong also won two plots at the bottom price.

From the perspective of land price and premium rate, Zhang Dawei pointed out that the upward trend of land premium rate this year is mainly reflected in some cities. Although the overall land market price is still not fully increased, the price of some land in some cities has reached a historical high.

In recent years, many cases of taking land at the bottom price offset the upward trend of the premium rate of the whole year, and stabilize the land price in 2020, which is conducive to the stability of future house prices.