Li Yige'S Column: Normalization Of Long-Term Mechanism Is Normalization Of Real Estate

There are also real estate regulation and control of urban upgrading. On a closer look, it can be called "overweight", but the new measures are relatively mild. For example, Changchun's notice requires that the down payment for the first set of housing should be raised to 30% and the down payment for the second set of housing should be raised to 40%. However, the down payment for the second set of housing in some hot cities is already 60% or even 70%.

One of the principles of real estate regulation and control is "one city, one policy", and the city government takes the main responsibility. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust and improve the housing purchase and loan restriction policy according to the local actual situation. Commonly known as patching in the industry.

According to the market changes, the city government takes differential control measures, which is the performance of implementing the long-term mechanism of real estate. Similarly, the "three red lines" financing new regulations of key real estate enterprises recently launched by the central bank and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development is the embodiment of the implementation of the prudent management system of real estate finance, and is also an important part of the long-term mechanism of real estate.

Some friends in the real estate industry are still full of nostalgia for the golden age of the real estate market. They always consciously or unconsciously open the market in the past, and often snatch up all of them. Compared with the difficulty of selling houses now, more friends are sober. It is quite possible that the property market has been gorgeous and fierce for more than ten years. From the data point of view, although the real estate industry has shown a downward trend since the second half of 2018, the performance of real estate is still good under such a complicated economic background this year.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to August, the national real estate development investment was 8845.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year, while the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) decreased by 0.3% in the same period. From January to August, the national commercial housing sales area was 984.86 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, but the decline rate was 2.5 percentage points lower than that of January July. What's more, in the first eight months, the sales of commercial housing increased by 1.6% to 9694.3 billion yuan, and the sales of residential buildings increased by 4.1%. This is still achieved under the background of price restriction and purchase restriction in major cities in China, which is not easy.

I have previously written that the "three red lines" financing new rules are intended to prevent real estate financial risks. The competent authorities put real estate finance in a particularly important position, so they have established a prudent management system of real estate finance. Some public opinions think that it is to tighten the financing, but in essence, the competent authorities guarantee the basic financing needs of real estate enterprises. The reference time point of the "three red lines" financing new regulation is the end of June 2019, which is a relatively high standard.

In short, "three red lines" financing new regulations, and then, the establishment of real estate financial Prudential management system, to the real estate enterprises, transmitted a clear signal, that is, the mode of high leverage and high debt is not allowed or sustainable. I asked this question at this year's Boao 21st century real estate forum. The leaders of real estate enterprises almost unanimously agreed that it is more and more difficult for real estate enterprises to overtake on corners, and the time for leapfrog growth is no longer.

In private communication with friends, I have expressed a view that over the past 10 years, many real estate enterprise owners thought that the leap forward growth of the company was the result of both wisdom and courage. However, if you reflect on yourself, you may find that it is to a certain extent the result of the dividend overflow of the rapid development of the industry. As long as there are no major mistakes in judgment, they are not particularly stupid and follow the trend, It won't be any worse. Of course, there will be opportunities. If you can seize them, you will be a few steps faster than others, but it is not essential difference. But if it is too tight, extreme risk-taking may lead to another unbearable outcome.

And now? It has been said a few years ago that the golden age of the property market will be followed by the silver age, which is in line with the logic of industry development. However, I prefer to describe it as moving closer to the normal industry. In other words, real estate is becoming a normal and stable development industry. If we have to use a symbol to refer to, that is, the establishment of a long-term mechanism of real estate.

The normalization of long-term mechanism is the normalization of industry development, that is, the normalization of real estate enterprise development. Before the adjustment of the real estate market in June 2018, we often heard that some enterprises put forward the amount of RMB 100 billion in three years. They refer not only to the housing consumption environment at that time, but also to the "opportunities" that seem to be repeatedly fulfilled in previous years.

People can not surpass themselves, so they always judge the future by the past; however, today's industry environment and housing consumption curve have changed significantly. It's a pity that a number of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises have no chance to develop by leaps and bounds. The great reshuffle of more than 10 years is coming. I hope that the so-called merger and acquisition or merger in the future will be more active and not so tragic.

Back to the current property market. Although I think the new financing rules do not mean tightening of financing, but maintaining stability on the basis of ensuring the basic demand for funds, some real estate enterprises arrange their investment this year according to the inertia of last year, especially the financing arrangement, which may still be the rhythm of growth. What should I do?

The red line is insurmountable. Then we should pay close attention to sales. Although gold and silver may not be harvested in September and October, it is still a good season for sales traditionally. As early as during the epidemic period, some real estate enterprises achieved good harvest through discount promotion, which shows that this kind of marketing is effective. Therefore, I suggest that the real estate enterprises with tight cash flow arrangement may as well launch discount promotion measures now, so as to gain as much as possible during the national day. But to remind you, discount or to be a little more realistic, less play some fancy skills, home buyers are now very smart.

Of course, I still have to give the real estate people a boost. As far as I can see, real estate will still be a good industry in the future. As long as we don't hold the mentality of getting rich quickly in the past and use excellent management, high-quality products and good services to give back to buyers, enterprises and practitioners will get good returns.