China'S Economy Is Worth Looking Forward To In The Second Half

Not long ago, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the update of the world economic outlook report, it believed that the world economy was facing the worst recession since the great depression in the 1930s. "China is the only major economy expected to achieve positive growth in 2020," the IMF said A high degree of attention has been paid to the trend of China's economy at home and abroad.

A number of analysts pointed out that in the face of the sudden outbreak of new pneumonia, China has laid a solid foundation for the resumption of work and production and economic and social recovery with effective response. At the same time, a series of targeted "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" as well as policies and measures related to deepening reform and expanding opening up are also providing strong support for China's economy to regain its positive momentum of stability and progress. Therefore, whether in the short term or in the long run, the "second half" of China's economy is worth looking forward to.

Important indicators frequent positive signals

Why can China's economy bring people confidence again? Positive changes in many important data are evidence.

For example, in May, the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in China reached 582.34 billion yuan, which decreased by 4.3% year-on-year in April to an increase of 6.0%; for another example, in May, the power consumption of the whole society was 592.6 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while the national power generation was growing at a faster speed. In the first ten days of June, the national full caliber power generation increased by 9.1% year-on-year; in June, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 50 9%, the supply and demand sides continued to warm up, and the non manufacturing business activity index was 54.4%, rebounding for four consecutive months

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the development research center of the State Council, pointed out in an interview with our reporter that recently, important indicators of China's economy have frequently shown positive signals, fully reflecting China's great achievements in comprehensively promoting epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.

"On the one hand, China has a super large-scale market, rich human resources and strong factor guarantee conditions; on the other hand, the epidemic of new crown pneumonia is the most important factor affecting the economic and social operation. In the face of the epidemic, China has taken timely and decisive prevention and control measures to prevent and control the epidemic in a scientific way and return to work and production in an orderly manner. At the same time, China has strengthened the measures of "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" in production, distribution, exchange and consumption, thus laying the foundation for economic recovery in the first half of the year. " Zhang Liqun said.

Sergei lukonen, an economist at the Institute of world economy and international relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, predicts that although the indicators are not high, China will still be the fastest growing country among the major economies this year, while East Asia and the Asia Pacific region will also be the fastest growing regions in the world.

Steady policy and good expectation

Since the beginning of this year, it has brought a series of positive effects on China's economy.

In terms of targeted poverty alleviation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, Poverty Alleviation Office of the State Council and other four departments issued measures to further expand the support objects of poverty alleviation micro credit and extend the repayment period of poverty alleviation micro credit affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic; in terms of helping foreign trade enterprises, the general office of the State Council printed and issued the implementation opinions on supporting the domestic sales of export products, and adopted 10 articles Specific measures have been taken to help foreign trade enterprises better open up the domestic market. In terms of financial support, this year, the central government has adopted two "1 trillion yuan" new deficits and special treasury bonds to support local governments in implementing measures to help small, medium and micro enterprises, self-employed businesses and people in need, strengthening infrastructure construction such as public health and spending on epidemic prevention

Zhufang is expected to take the lead in real estate investment growth in the second quarter of the year. Therefore, under the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promoting economic growth will be driven by consumption and investment.

"On the investment side, under the counter cyclical policy, infrastructure construction has turned positive year-on-year in a month, and the construction of new infrastructure has been steadily promoted; on the consumer side, retail sales of Enterprises above the quota have been significantly restored to close to the growth level of the same period last year, and online retail continues to grow at a high speed. In the second half of the year, we expect that the government and enterprises will continue to expand their credit and investment in the future Star Stone Investment General Manager Yang Ling said.

Positive transformation and higher quality of development

The "second half" of China's economy is worth looking forward to, not only in economic figures, but also in the transformation of growth momentum and the improvement of development quality.

"The overall acceleration of digital economy, the rapid growth of intelligent and technological products, the rapid expansion of remote office, online education and online consultation, and the continuous emergence of new models such as unmanned retail and live delivery will strongly support economic development." Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said in an analysis of the new economic momentum.

For example, Guan Qingyou, President of the Institute of financial research, believes that in the medium and long term, China's economy needs to release the vitality of production factors such as land, labor, capital, technology and big data. "I believe that if this round of market-oriented reform of production factors can be effectively implemented and truly implemented, it will greatly promote China's medium and long-term economic growth potential, and China will take the lead in the world's major economies to walk out of recession and offset the impact of the epidemic."

"A series of targeted policies that work at the same time on the supply side and the demand side reflect the strategic thinking of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to" base on the domestic big cycle and smooth the domestic and international dual cycle. " Zhang Liqun said.

Zhang Liqun further pointed out that in the short run, the task of the "second half" of China's economy lies in properly coping with the impact of the epidemic itself, effectively boosting effective demand, avoiding enterprises falling into the predicament of "oversupply", and helping all economic entities to return to normal state to the greatest extent; in the long run, all parties need to accelerate the improvement of the socialist market economic system in the new era We will promote supply side structural reform, and solidly boost infrastructure investment, consumer consumption and other key demand items. Zhang Liqun said that as long as we do a good job in "combining long-term with short-term, improving both quantity and quality", we will certainly inject strong impetus into the "second half" of China's economy.