"Solid Collection +" Attack And Defense Record Debt Base "Down To Panic" Smooth Retreat To Meet The "First Test"

Continuous large fluctuations, so that a steady bond fund to a big drop.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter statistics, in the first three trading days of June, 2205 of the total open-ended funds in the market showed negative earnings, accounting for 82% of the 2693 funds that could be counted.

In June 3rd alone, the net value of 2546 bond funds fell, accounting for 95%.

Even the popular personal pension management product on Alipay platform, flying over 366 of the letter endowment, all fell in June 2nd and June 3rd.

Twenty-first Century economic news reporter found that many investment platforms have emerged investors questioned the voice.

The background is that the bond market continues to fluctuate. The 10 year Treasury futures T2009 contract has fallen 0.94% this month, and the TF2009 contract for the 5 year treasury bonds has also fallen 0.9% this month. The spot rate continued to rise. The 10 year treasury bonds are active since June, and the yield has risen 2.58%.

The choice of layout is in front of fund companies.

"Solid collection + competition"

Although the bond market fluctuates continuously, "fixed income +" is still the focus of many fund companies' marketing propaganda.

In twenty-first Century, the economic news reporter found that on a well-known Internet fund sales platform, there was a recommendation page for "Gu + +" strategy product.

In its introduction, "fixed income +" is a fund invested by asset allocation strategy, mainly investing in bonds, while participating in stock investment moderately, pursuing steady while striving for higher returns than monetary fund and short-term financial management.

Such products are considered to be "more concerned at the moment when the proceeds of the monetary fund continue to fall."

In twenty-first Century, the economic report combing reporters found that recently, a number of companies such as Huaan fund, China Europe Fund, South Fund, Haitong fund and so on all had "solid income +" new products.

It is reported that not only hay Fu Tong, such as the layout of "fixed income +" fund company for many years, has continued to expand the product layout.

"This year's new crown epidemic has accelerated the trend of the IMF yield contraction. In order to prompt the domestic economic operation to return to the right track as soon as possible, prudent monetary policy is more flexible and moderate. The central bank supports real economy by lowering interest rates and increasing rediscount and rediscount quota, and the interbank liquidity is further relaxed, thus accelerating the downward trend of the freight base yield. Wei Zhen, head of cash management group at fixed income headquarters, said frankly to our reporter.

When the downward trend of earnings is difficult to change, "Gu + +" becomes a hot word in the financial market by virtue of "seeking more profits in the smallest fluctuation range".

"In May, we issued a product of" solid collection + strategy ", which is ideal for distribution. Southern China, a public fund company, said the market department.

"These products better integrate the strengths and weaknesses of stocks and bonds." The aforementioned public fund people said.

Its core logic is to make use of the bond part to smooth back the net value through the combination of stock and debt, and use the stock part to strive for a higher yield. Using the bond part to smooth the net value retracement is not as easy as expected.

From the data of debt based market, the income data of from June 1st to 3rd show that there are 13 bond funds in the 5-10 years of the national debt Huian interest rate bond, the Jianxin bond, the CDB, the win win benefit, the people's livelihood plus silver Hengyu, the honeycomb profit, the galaxy A, the Castrol intermediate bond ETF and so on, and the profits in this period have fallen by over 1%.

China's Jin Huian interest rate debt and Jianxin debt have dropped 1.1% over the past 5-10 years.

Debt based performance "Waterloo"

Correspondent statistics show that in June 2nd, the largest drop in the market on a single day, the two funds, including Hongde Yuxiang A and Yong win win, fell by more than 0.9% on the same day. In June 3rd, the net value of the one year fixed investment fund of the Bank of China was down by more than 0.9%.

Relevant institutional researchers believe that the reason behind the fall of the bond market in June 2nd is that the central bank announced the purchase of small and micro loans directly in the evening of June 1st, which can bypass the traditional wide currency and be understood by the market as broad credit will accelerate.

From the feedback of buyer's agency, the impact of "expected" change is also a key factor.

At the end of May, many agencies indicated that the expected tightening of capital front would ease at the beginning of next month.

"On the one hand, the upward trend of returns is due to the reduction of the banking institutions at the end of the month, plus the large amount of interest bond issuance, the impact of the pressure of contributions, the tight tightening of funds and the sharp rise in the price of funds. On the other hand, the downtrend in the open market interest rate is expected to fail. After the central bank carried out the counter repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan, the market expected that the central bank would lower the OMO interest rate, but announced the interest rate. The market is expected to fail, and exchange rate pressure has led the central bank to control the price of funds. Beijing a public fund fixed income director said.

According to its expectations, "tight financial position is expected to ease next week. The central bank has not lowered the open market operating interest rate this week. It is expected that short-term market expectations will be subsided, but the pressure on the exchange rate will still exist for a short time. It will also make short-term capital prices more difficult to return to the low level. The short end has recently been under pressure, and the long end has been adjusted to exceed 20BP since April 30th. There is more risk of upfront. "

But obviously, at the beginning of the month, the actions of the central bank were not in line with this optimistic expectation.

"Before we expected the monetary policy to be too high, but last week, the central bank's operation was actually marginally tightened. In anticipation of the lack of marginal change in monetary policy, fiscal policy has exerted strength, including a large number of special debt, and the policy of the central bank's support for small and micro loans, making the bond market sentiment more panic. A public bond fund manager in Shanghai said.

Frankly speaking, although the market adjustment is expected, it is more than expected.

"There are also many investors who redeem this period. In fact, we think that it will be better for us to spend the time. In the long run, the bond fund still has the value of allocation." A public fund in Beijing said.

Is the best day of debt market past?

Dispute between ox and bear

Since the continuous adjustment in May, every fluctuation has been affecting the market.

CITIC Securities Research believes that the market risk will rebound when the marginal economic recovery and broad credit policy are pushed forward. The interest rate centre in June will hardly return to the low point in May. But considering the recovery process of the underlying fundamentals and the pace of monetary policy, the short-term bear market is not yet coming. Under the combination, the concussion market will be the main feature of the follow-up bond market. It is estimated that the yield of the Treasury bonds in 10 years will be oscillated in the range of 2.6%-2.8%.

"The current pattern makes June crucial." Shen Wan Hongyuan Securities chief bond analyst Meng Xiangjuan said.

In its view, the bond market positive, especially monetary policy and liquidity positive performance in April is relatively full, taking into account the 2 quarter is the last round of the debt bull band, the yield is low and volatile, the market surplus power increased. The bond market is still positive, but 5-6 months to fight and retreat, the second half of 2020 to maintain prudent bond market.

"Under the background of weak recovery, the downward trend of short-term interest rates is coming to an end. The focus of monetary policy has shifted to broad credit. The central bank has started to reverse reverse buy back, but it is mainly short-term capital adjustment, which does not mean that the new currency will be restarted, and the price performance of bonds will be the same." Wei Fengchun, chief macroeconomic strategist at the time fund, said.

However, some agencies believe that the "most panic" stage of the current market is over.

"The market for the subsequent bond market has basically been readjusted in place, and the stage of fast rising returns has passed. The short term market adjustment is rather large. In fact, it is a turning point. " Fidelity high quality pure debt fund manager Wu Yinxi told this reporter frankly.

"For the bond market, it may fall into a shock market in the short term, but in the first half of June, the economic data may have a larger expected difference, and the next round of reduction may also fall in early June. If the above judgment is established, the bond market will usher in a new round of rising prices in early 6. " Xingyin short debt fund manager Li Wencheng believes.

Twenty-first Century economic news reporter found that in many discussions on the three party platform, there are doubts about fund investors' decline in debt base income during this period, which means "to cut meat". And targeted, many fund companies are also active in the recent debt base net callback interpretation.