Cost Side Good Support May Polyester Filament Price Shocks Upward

According to the price monitoring of business associations, since May, the domestic polyester filament market has seen a trend of upward trend. The products of all specifications have risen to varying degrees, of which the increase of polyester FDY is the 11.95% most obvious, followed by polyester POY and polyester FDY, or 9.28% and 5.16% respectively.

　 Polyester filament market average price rise and fall, unit: yuan / ton

The cost side trend is strong, which is the main reason to further enhance the price of the polyester filament market. Since May, the crude oil market has officially invested in the production reduction process. The supply and demand situation has been continuously improved and oil prices have risen. As of May 26th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures contract has been quoted at 34.35 US dollars / barrel, and the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract has been quoted at 36.17 US dollars / barrel. In the PTA market, with the 700 thousand tons of Li Wan polyester, 2 million 800 thousand tons of Hon Bang petrochemical and 400 thousand tons of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Company, the load began to repair, and the load started from 93% at the beginning of the month to 87%. The impact of crude oil stimulation, self device failure, overhaul and so on has kept the price rising as a whole. The average price of the market as of 27 days is 3583 yuan / ton, or 8.87%. After reaching the highest level of 3632 yuan / ton in 21 days, the trading atmosphere has turned to light, and the price of the hype has cooled down and the price has dropped slightly.

Secondly, the order volume of the downstream textile market improved in May compared with that in April, and the stock of polyester filament decreased. According to statistics, by the end of May 27th, when POY stocks were close to 15-22 days, FDY stocks were near to 16-22 days, while DTY stocks were about 24-34 days. The main reason is that, on the one hand, in the beginning of several waves in April this year, a number of weaving enterprises have changed their buying strategies in the past with buying and using, choosing to buy raw materials in advance, and some traders have also chosen to buy bottom goods, and the stock pressure of polyester filament enterprises has been shifted to a certain extent. On the other hand, domestic demand has gradually recovered, and goods are better than before. Manufacturers' enthusiasm has increased, and loom operating rate has increased by more than 64%. At the same time, some overseas countries announced the release, and export sales were quietly starting, and enquiries increased gradually.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, thinks that the market of polyester filament in May has entered a rising channel. It is mainly influenced by the upgrading of raw materials market and the improvement of downstream demand. But it is worth noting that at present, the problem of high load and high inventory of raw materials PTA has not been fundamentally solved, and the continued rise of the market is still under pressure. The specific analysis shows that the domestic PTA load is still high, and in June, the restart and maintenance coexist. There is a maintenance plan for China, Thailand, Yisheng and Yizheng. However, due to the weakness of the upstream PX link, the PTA processing fee has fluctuated between 700-800 yuan / ton since May, and the processing fee level is undoubtedly high in the current stage of excess capacity. In the case of high processing fees, the possibility of postponement is not ruled out. In terms of inventory, the contradiction between supply and demand is still more prominent, and the expectation of maintaining the storage is still maintained. The stock of the society is still maintained at over 3 million 500 thousand tons, and the pressure remains. Therefore, the price of PTA will be suppressed.

Although the demand side of the downstream terminal has improved, the number of orders began to decrease rapidly after entering mid May, and the market entered the traditional off-season. The order performance is not stable, and prudence is the main reason for raw material purchase. If the follow up order can not be followed up in time, the possibility of loom load reduction will not be eliminated in the late June. At the same time, from the perspective of textile exports, there is still a big gap from last year. Customs data show that in 1-4 months, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 66 billion 626 million US dollars, down 12.06% from the same period last year, of which the total textile exports amounted to US $37 billion 311 million 500 thousand, an increase of 2.90% over the same period last year. The total export volume of garments was 29 billion 308 million 900 thousand US dollars, down 22.33% from the same period last year. This is mainly due to the surge in export of anti epidemic products in textiles in April, which has increased the overall export volume of textiles, while garment exports have declined further.

To sum up, the negative factors in the upstream and downstream markets remain. It is expected that the rise of polyester filament in June will come to an end.