Cotton Price Rise Has Not Been Transmitted To The Cotton Products, Zheng Cotton Finishing Callback.

Last week (November 4-8), thanks to the good expectation of Sino US negotiations, cotton prices have been rising since the National Day holiday, and the morale of the cotton front has been restored. However, due to the shortage of new orders and the pressure of old stock, the gauze enterprises are busy taking the opportunity to digest inventory, and there is no bottom gas price increase. The cotton price rise has not been transmitted to the gauze products of the back road, instead, it has continuously engulfed the profits of the cotton mill, and the cotton mill has continued to follow the strategy of buying and selling. Last week, new cotton sales pressure was obvious, warehouse receipt registration increased rapidly, Zheng cotton met before the high callback finishing. Cotton price CN CottonB index price 12912 yuan / ton, week rise 33 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF2001 contract, spot discount 58 yuan / ton, narrowed 148 yuan / ton, spot water conservancy in warehouse receipt registration.

Futures. New cotton sales pressure is obvious, warehouse receipt registration has increased rapidly, cotton prices have not been transferred to cotton yarn, Zheng cotton in the vicinity of the previous high point resistance to callback finishing. Zheng cotton's main contract CF2001 closed at 12970 yuan / ton on Friday, weekly fell 115 yuan / ton, trading activity declined, outflow of funds, weekly turnover of 2867690 hands, reduced 1179014 hands, a 29.1% decline, holding 714368 hands, weeks reduced 17614 hands, 2.4% reduction. The number of registered warehouse receipts increased by 2850, an increase of 1152 over last week. The warehouse receipts forecast increased rapidly, and spot discount futures increased. In September, textile and garment exports were 24 billion 520 million US dollars, down 7.9% compared to the same period last year. In 1-9 months, the retail sales of domestic major large retail enterprises decreased by 4% compared with the same period last year. The acquisition of new cotton is coming to an end. There is limited space to reduce production and speculation. Before the Sino US negotiations did not come out in good terms, the main CF2001 had a larger probability of 13000 yuan / ton consolidation. If the Sino US talks reappear, they may have to go further.

Us disk: a large number of new cotton is on the market. The output is expected to reach a new high of nearly 12 years. Consumption is facing difficulties. The potential benefits of Sino US negotiations have been digested by the market. The US cotton is waiting for the news. The December contract was set at 65 cents / pound, and it closed at 64.51 cents / pound on Friday, and 13 points in the week. If there is no good stimulus, this week may continue the callback arrangement, continue to track the progress of trade negotiations and cotton weather.

On the spot. After the rebound of futures, the purchase price of seed cotton is rising, the purchasing cost is rising at the same time, the mentality of selling enterprises has increased, the price of new cotton has generally increased, and the "double 28" price quoted by the inner warehouse has been priced at 13500-13700 yuan / ton, which has been close to the mainland bank. The main resources of the mill are mainly 18 years' resources, which are convenient for picking up, relatively inexpensive, and better than new cotton. There is no obvious improvement in the order of the cotton mill, and the purchasing power and purchasing desire are at a low level. The first wave of wadding replenishment may mislead the processing enterprises to judge the future market, and textile consumption is not optimistic. The mainland's 3128 hand picked Xinjiang cotton price is 13300-13800 yuan / ton, and Xinjiang cotton is 13300-13600 yuan / ton. Customs clearance India cotton 12900-13500 yuan / ton, Australia cotton 15500-16000 yuan / ton, Brazil cotton 13300-14000 yuan / ton. Imported cotton quality and price difference is large, need careful choice comparison.

Acquisition of new cotton. New cotton has picked up more than 90%. Under the double influence of cotton seed price and optimistic cotton market, purchasing price has been rising steadily. The purchase price of hand picked cotton is 5.8-6.5 yuan / kg, machine picked cotton is 5.2-5.6 yuan / kg, and cottonseed price is about 1.8 yuan / kg. Acquisition costs rise, sales quotas rise, progress is slow, profits fall and acquisition risks rise. As of November 8th, 848 enterprises in the country reported 1 million 570 thousand tons of public inspection. Judging from the quality data of the cotton that has been checked, the length, strength and horse value of the new cotton are slightly worse than that of last year.

Operation suggestion. Zheng cotton met with a high return on schedule. If there is no external force, this week may test the support of the 40 and 60 day moving average. A large number of new cotton market, adequate supply stage, insufficient consumption, a large number of new cotton may enter the hedging, cotton prices upward pressure. We will continue to pay attention to the progress of Sino US negotiations and the increase in orders consumption.