PTA Stage Rally Is Worth Looking Forward To

In the past 1 months, PTA has maintained an interval oscillation market, and spot price and futures main price have fluctuated in the range of 5100-5300 yuan / ton, and the base value oscillates near zero value. Early pessimism expectations have been fulfilled, and the focus of the market will return to the fundamentals of industry. Through the summary analysis of the upstream and downstream data of the PTA industry chain, we believe that the PTA bull market is worth looking forward to.

PTA fundamentals improvement

In terms of PTA installations, 4 million 500 thousand tons of Fuhua chemical industry and trade, and 1 million 500 thousand tons of Jiaxing petrochemical plant have been driven. However, due to the unexpected shutdown of 1 million 400 thousand tons of Hua Bin Petrochemical Company and 600 thousand tons of Fujian Jialong 600 thousand tons, plus 650 thousand tons of Yisheng Ningbo and 600 thousand tons of Yangzi Petrochemical Company, the domestic PTA is running at normal intervals. According to the industry news, the Northeast 1 sets of PTA large installations in September there is a maintenance plan, may stage low PTA industry start-up level.

Polyester has been performing well in recent years, and the production and marketing level has obviously recovered. As of August 20th, the average production and sale rate of polyester factories has reached 93%, and the 15 day mobile average level has reached 87%, basically recovering to the same period last year. Recently, Changshu Hengyi 160 thousand tons filament plant, Tongxiang new Feng Ming 200 thousand ton filament device and Jiangyin Cheng Xing 600 thousand tons bottle tablet device have increased load. As of last week, five polyester operation rate has reached 89% level. In addition, Jiaxing Hengbang 4 tons 300 thousand ton filament new device, Fujian Yi Jin 80 thousand ton short fiber new device has successfully driven. Overall, the polyester plant has shown its expectations for the improvement of downstream demand in the 3 quarter. At present, the profit of various products in the polyester link is in a reasonable range. Preliminary estimation is that the profit of polyester chip is 390 yuan / ton, polyester bottle piece is 140 yuan / ton, polyester staple fiber is 205 yuan / ton, polyester POY550 yuan / ton, polyester FDY340 yuan / ton, polyester DTY540 yuan / ton. Under the high profit pattern, the polyester load is still expected to increase. PTA's recent direct demand is generally optimistic.

The local order of terminal weaving has increased, such as Wujiang's elastic fabric, window fabric, chiffon fabric and so on. Haining's Velvet down and ammonia superfluence also have some weight, and new warp knitted velvet, polar fleece and Rome cloth also appear. Therefore, the overall Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms started to rise to 68%, lower 7%. As the loom resumed and the profit of the bomb increased partially, the load increased by about 15%.

PTA and polyester stocks remain stable.

At present, the PTA social inventory is estimated to be around 1 million 400 thousand tons, which is affected by the device parking inspection. In August, it maintained a small library rhythm. PTA factory inventory accounts for about 30%, polyester factory raw material inventory accounted for about 28%, downstream polyester factory has continued to replenishment space. In addition, the finished product inventory of polyester factories has dropped significantly in recent years. As of August 15th, polyester staple fiber stocks for 2.5 days, polyester POY stocks for 3 days, polyester FDY stocks for 8 days, pet DTY stocks for 18 days, all were significantly lower than the previous two weeks level. With the decline of polyester product inventory, under the high profit market environment, the load level of polyester plant will obviously recover, thus supporting the demand pattern of the PTA3 quarter.

On the whole, the PTA fundamentals in the 3 quarter were strong. In September, with the extinction of geopolitical risks and the improvement of macro expectations, the PTA bull market in the 3 quarter is worth looking forward to. In addition, with the new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand tons, Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 500 thousand tons of equipment has been put into operation, the 4 quarter PTA supply side pressure gradually increased, PTA processing profit again compression is likely to be higher, it is suggested that the 3 quarter end PTA high sell hedge opportunities.