Financial Market Ushered In "Super Thursday" Detonating Foreign Exchange Market

The Bank of England will include interest rate resolutions, minutes of meetings and quarterly inflation reports. In this article, the Bank of England governor Carney will hold a press conference.

Although the central bank generally maintains interest rates unchanged today, the organic structure has warned that members may vote for a reduction in interest rates. If so, it will undoubtedly be a "bad news" for the pound. In addition, investors will pay attention to whether the Bank of England will adjust its economic growth and inflation expectations, and the corresponding adjustment may affect the pound. Carney's press conference, in addition to monetary policy, investors should also pay attention to his views on Britain's off Europe issue.

Beijing time Thursday (May 12th) 19:00, the Bank of England (BOE) will publish interest rate resolutions, minutes and quarterly inflation report; Beijing time Thursday 19:30, the Bank of England governor Carney (Mark Carney) will hold a news conference.

Most analysts predict that with the British referendum approaching in June 23rd, the nine members of the MPC will maintain a united front and unanimously vote to maintain the target interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.

Analysts of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that the interest rate decision on the three month consensus of the Bank of England's monetary policymakers is likely to be broken.

Bank of England

The 9 members of the Commission (MPC) have consistently agreed to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% since February. However, analysts at Rob Wood and Athanasios Vamvakidis, Merrill Lynch, expect at least one member to vote in favor of cutting interest rates at this week's meeting.

Previous data showed that

Weak performance and cooling economic growth, and this week's report also showed that the PMI in April was worse than expected.

All this shows that the weakening of economic momentum is partly due to the uncertainty surrounding Britain's departure from Europe.

Some policy-makers, including governor Carney, have said that if necessary, there is room for relaxing the policy, but the most likely difference from the majority may be Gertjan Vlieghe, who once said in February that he could hardly endure the downside of the economy.

Bank of America analysts wrote: "although the Bank of England has expressed before, they tend to carefully interpret economic data before the referendum, but the recent report performance is much weaker than expected, no matter what we expect.

Own expectations.

We believe that one or two decision makers may feel that interest rate cuts will be a more reasonable insurance policy. "

TD Securities said it expects the Bank of England to maintain a stable rate of interest with a vote of 9:0, only more than 40 days from a referendum in the UK.

According to Dao Ming securities, two British central bank officials said that the deterioration of data may prompt them to cut interest rates, although this probability is not large, but it can not be completely ruled out.

Last month, the Monetary Policy Committee said it expected the data to weaken in the near term.

Alan Clarke, an analyst at Scotiabank, said that MPC had remained calm in the face of factors that temporarily affect the outlook for inflation.

"In a word, we believe that MPC will continue to maintain interest rates unchanged at the meeting with 9:0 votes," he told clients.

But we are not as confident as we used to be, and at least one member voted for a rate of interest rate close to 50%.

Given the weakness of the PMI in April, the lowest growth rate in the second quarter was zero, less than 0.5% of the Bank of England forecast, and the Bank of England adjusted its forecast.

Most economists interviewed last month found that the Bank of England is likely to downgrade its economic growth forecast in the quarterly report, but maintain a stable inflation forecast.

Investec's customer report said: "the market will be interested in the quarterly inflation report and meeting minutes to follow in order to understand the committee's judgement on the impact of the pound's depreciation since February, and also to pay attention to the comments on the impact of the referendum."

Bloomberg economist wrote that there will be no action on Thursday in terms of monetary policy, but the Bank of England will publish its inflation report and summary of the meeting. The most important concern will be how the monetary policy committee will interpret the first quarter GDP data and its growth expectations for the British economy after its referendum in June. In addition, it will also shoulder its own challenge, because the risk of Euro retreat is affecting the interest rate expectations of the market and complicating the prediction process.