RMB Depreciation Is Expected To Slightly Weaken The Exchange Rate Material To Continue Two-Way Fluctuations

The yuan fell to nearly 100 points against the dollar on Wednesday, and rebounded yesterday. The middle price ended four consecutive liters, as the international dollar stabilized overnight.

Traders said that the recent market trend basically referred to the performance of the middle price. In order to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate index (CFETS), the exchange rate continued to fluctuate in two directions when the depreciation of the renminbi was expected to weaken slightly.

They also pointed out that during the two sessions, the news was quiet, and the demand for foreign exchange purchase increased after the exchange rate continued to rise. The paction increased significantly yesterday. The bank continued to provide liquidity in the direction of foreign exchange settlement. It strives to deviate from the central parity and the market price by no more than 40 points, but less attention is paid to the international dollar fluctuation in the day. Offshore CNH CNH=D3 exchange rate is also dropping slightly, and the price difference between the offshore price and the shore price is maintained at 50 points.

"Recently, the fixing (middle price) followed the US dollar index and the market price followed fixing, but the rhythm was still controlled by big banks."

A Chinese bank trader said.

According to the data released by Hongkong Finance Association, the fixed price of US dollar / Renminbi (Hongkong) spot exchange rate was 6.5168 in March 9th.

UBS's latest view is that China in the short term

Efforts should be made to keep the exchange rate relatively stable against the US dollar and a basket of currencies.

It maintained a moderate depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in the whole year, and the forecast for the exchange rate of 6.8 at the end of 5% was unchanged.

The exchange rate is likely to remain stable and devalued for most of the time.

The central bank may continue to use foreign exchange reserves to stabilize its currency and tighten its foreign exchange reserves in practice to avoid a significant depreciation of the exchange rate and effective management of capital flows.

The exchange rate of China's foreign exchange trading center today is 16 RMB 6.5147 against the US dollar, and the trading center has published 12 reference prices every day since January 4th. It is issued at 10 a.m., 11 p.m., 2 p.m. to 11 p.m. per hour.

The Central Bank of China announced in August 11, 2015 that it would improve the quotations between the RMB and the US dollar in order to enhance its marketization and benchmarking.

Since then, market makers are in the daily banking room.

Before opening, referring to the closing rate of the inter-bank foreign exchange market on the day of the day, considering the demand and supply of foreign exchange as well as the exchange rate changes of the major international currencies, we offered an intermediate price quotation to the China foreign exchange trading center, and depreciated for nearly 2%.

The four session of the twelve session of the CPPCC National Committee and the four session of the twelve National People's Congress were opened last week, and the meeting will continue until the end of the morning of 16.

China's State Administration of foreign exchange on Wednesday said in official micro-blog that the policy of foreign exchange management to support normal and rational use of foreign exchange has not changed. The Wall Street Journal said China "

The report is inaccurate.

In the offshore market, the 1 year US dollar / RMB non deliverable forwards reported 6.728 yuan.

On the global market, there was a slight risk aversion in the foreign exchange market on Wednesday, and the yen rose across the board amid concerns about the slowdown in China's economy.

We are concerned about the policy meetings held this week by Canada, New Zealand and the European Central Bank.

The European Central Bank is expected to further lower its negative interest rate and announce expansion of asset purchases to boost inflation.