Interpretation Of PTA'S Supporting Situation

Market Review

In early April, Zhangzhou Tenglong

Factory accident, Xiang Lu 4 million 500 thousand tons of PTA device shutdown, Asian PX prices continue to rise and downstream production and sales and other factors to boost the PTA market, PTA futures prices rebounded sharply, 1509 contracts from 4600 yuan / ton line gradually rose to 5500 yuan / ton line.

The spot market showed a rebound trend, and the price of the East China spot market fluctuated from 5200 to 5400 yuan / ton.

The mainstream PTA manufacturer executed 5200-5250 RMB yuan / ton at the settlement price of the contract goods in April.

Two. Fundamental analysis

1, macroeconomic aspects

According to the National Bureau of statistics, China's GDP grew by 7% in the first quarter, 0.3 percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of last year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the first quarter of last year, and the lowest point since the two quarter of the year.

From the perspective of sub sectors, the third industry added value increased by 7.9% over the same period last year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the first quarter of last year, and 6.4% growth in the second industry, 0.9 percentage points lower than in the first quarter of last year, and 3.2% in the first industry, a 0.2 percentage point lower than that in the first quarter of last year.

Domestic demand weakened in the first quarter, dragging down economic growth.

Fixed asset investment grew 13.5% in the first quarter, 4.1 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter of last year. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 10.6% over the same period last year, down 1.4 percentage points from the first quarter of last year, and the export growth in the first quarter increased by 4.7% over the same period last year, which is 8.2 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter of last year, -3.5% 17.6%.

Central bank March financial data show that in March

RMB loans increased by 1 trillion and 180 billion yuan, up by 130 billion 300 million yuan compared with the same period last year. In the first quarter, new RMB loans totaled 3.68 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the same period in history. Under the influence of continuous easing of central bank credit policy, infrastructure and real estate loans grew faster.

In March, the scale of social financing was 1 trillion and 180 billion yuan, 1732 yuan less than last month, 913 billion 400 million yuan less than the same period last year.

The scale of social financing in the first quarter was 4 trillion and 610 billion yuan, 894 billion 900 million yuan less than the same period last year.

At the end of 3, the M2 balance of 127 trillion and 530 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% compared with the same period last year, the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points lower than the end of last month, 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

In terms of monetary policy, the people's Bank of China decided that since April 20, 2015, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions has been reduced by 1.0 percentage points, and targeted measures have been targeted to reduce the rural financial institutions by 1 percentage points.

The Agricultural Development Bank of China has an additional 2 percentage point reduction in the Agricultural Development Bank, and the state-owned banks and joint stock commercial banks that meet the requirements of prudent operation and have a certain proportion of loans to agriculture, rural areas and farmers and small and micro enterprises can carry out the deposit reserve ratio of 0.5 percentage points lower than the statutory level of similar institutions.

Overall, GDP grew by 7% in the first quarter, the annulus rate was only 5.3%, the economic growth kinetic energy slowed down sharply, and the pressure of steady growth increased sharply.

Deflation is slightly relieved but still grim, export growth has fallen sharply, industry, investment and consumption are fully lower than expected. Monetary and credit cooperatives are also significantly less than expected. The two quarter is expected to increase steadily, monetary easing will be expected to continue loosening, and financial and infrastructure investment will be further strengthened.

2, upstream raw material trend

In April, the international crude oil prices showed a trend of upward trend. The crude oil price of WTI rose from 50 US dollars / barrel to 60 US dollars / barrel. The price of Brent crude rose from 55 US dollars to 66 US dollars / barrel. The difference between US crude oil and Brent crude oil was in the range of 6-10 US dollars. The price of naphtha oil showed a trend of upward trend from 525 US dollars / ton to 581 US dollars per ton CFR Japan, and the MX price in Asia also rose from 676 US dollars / ton to 792 US dollars / ton FOB Korea.

PX prices in Asia also increased significantly, from $786 / ton to $938 / tonne FOB Korea.

By the end of April 27th, the profits of naphtha rose to around $140, and MX's profits fell back to $108, and PX's profits fell to around 44 dollars.

PX contract goods, South Korea SK launched Asia PX in May, advocating price implementation of $950 / ton CFR.

Japan launched the PX contract in May, advocating price execution of 1030 US dollars / ton CFR.

South Korea's S-oil launched the PX contract in May, setting a price of $1010 / tonne CFR.

Sinopec [micro-blog] chemical sales, East China branch, issued a PX yuan contract settlement price of 6850 yuan / ton in April, up 600 yuan / ton compared with March settlement price.

On the device side, India OMPL92 10000 ton PX device was stopped in April 1st, and the factory was restarted on 13.

In the early April, an explosion accident occurred at Tenglong 1 million 600 thousand tons PX, Fujian, which was expected to be shut down in the next few months due to the accident.

ExxonMobil's PX facility in Singapore stopped in April 22nd for a 1 month maintenance period.

Japan's Nippon stone is located at Kawasaki's 350 thousand ton PX plant in late April. It stopped unexpectedly for half a month or so.

Fu Jia Dahua 1 million 400 thousand tons PX MH device is currently running at a reduced load. The factory originally planned to stop one line for about 23 days. At present, the production line is still reducing load and has not yet stopped.

South Korea's modern petrochemical project will be launched by the end of April.

The device stops for 40-45 days.

International crude oil and naphtha show upward trend of shock; Asian PX plant operating rate is maintained at around 68%, and domestic PX plant operating rate is around 60%. At present, some PX PX devices in Asia continue to be overhauled, and the overall supply will be reduced. It is estimated that Asian PX prices will continue to oscillate upward trend.