Zhang Wei: Risk Events Will Gather In The Market.

< p > < strong > 1: fundamental analysis < /strong > < /p >

< p > yesterday (02 July), the previous report showed that in June, the growth rate of US private employment increased by one and a half years, and the US dollar rose against the main currencies.

The report released on Wednesday by ADP EmployerServices, a private employment service, showed that the number of private employment increased by 281 thousand in June, higher than analysts' expectations, and the highest increase since November 2012.

On the stock market, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed at a mixed rate. The Dow and the S & P 500 index hit a new closing high. NASDAQ fell slightly. European stock markets rose more or less, while only three of France's stock indexes fell.

International gold price yesterday closed at 1326.60 U.S. dollars / ounce, the volatility is not large, it seems that ADP data have not received too much impact.

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< p > > a href= "http://? Www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > market < /a >, as of the end of the day, 1 euros to 1.3655 U.S. dollars, lower than the previous trading day of 1.3678 U. S. dollars, 1 pounds to 1.7162 U. S. dollars, higher than the previous session of 1.7148 U. S. dollars, 1 Australian dollars to 0.9439 U. S. dollars, lower than the previous day's 0.9490 U. S. dollars, 1 U. S. dollars to 101.74 yen, higher than the previous day's yen.

The ADP data was unexpectedly strong, after an increase of 200 thousand and a 179 thousand increase in the previous value.

According to institutional analysts, the ADP data show that the employment market has improved steadily, and almost all industries and companies of all sizes have increased employment, and small business recruitment activities have entered a higher level.

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< p > he also said that from the < a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > the employment market < /a >, the economic recovery is still intact and ready to go; the US economy is expected to achieve full employment in the late 2016.

However, there are also negative people who do not agree with the fact that the ADP is skyrocketing. They believe that in May, when the number of ADP employment increased by 179 thousand in the United States, the number of ADP employment increased by 281 thousand in June, but this may become a false signal before the announcement of non farm payrolls in July 3rd.

In November 2012, the number of ADP employment increased similarly. In fact, the number of non-agricultural workers increased slightly from 225 thousand last month to 203 thousand (revised data).

They also predicted the non-agricultural situation that will be announced this evening. They expect that the number of non-agricultural employment will increase by 220 thousand, slightly higher than market expectations.

In addition, the unemployment rate in the United States will drop by 0.1 percentage points in June, which is more likely to happen when the ADP results match the family survey.

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Today, Thursday (July 3rd), because tomorrow coincides with the United States Independence Day public holiday, the traditional US non farm employment data released on Friday will be released one day to Thursday (July 3rd). This will also make the two most important risk events of the ECB resolution and non-agricultural data the most important event this week, which will rarely be seen at the same time tonight.

During the Asian session, investors need to focus on data from China and Australia. China will issue non manufacturing PMI, and Australia will announce construction permits and retail sales.

Although China's data released this week are good, Australia's domestic trade data are very surprising, which has also frustrated the Australian dollar's advance.

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< p > Britain will also announce the data of service industry < a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > PMI < /a > data. Recently, the strong British data once again supported the anticipation of the Bank of England's interest rate hike ahead of schedule, and also made the pound sterling sesame blossom high. At present, the market is more sensitive to the British data, so the data should also be focused.

Then, the ECB will issue interest rate resolutions at 19:45 Beijing time. After 20:30 Beijing time, the European central bank governor Delaki will make a statement after the conference.

In view of the easing measures launched by Euro silver in June, such as negative interest rates, it is widely expected that the ECB will stay put and wait for these measures to have some effect in the market before considering whether to continue easing.

However, Delaki's verbal intervention in the euro exchange rate at the press conference is still not ruled out, which will also have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate.

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< p > some analysts pointed out that from the euro performance after the last meeting.

Perhaps only a significant rise in the possibility of large-scale quantitative easing can allow the euro to break through the current trading zone against the dollar.

The latest analysis of capital flow shows that speculators are already short of euros and investment companies are buying euros at bargain prices.

The lack of practical action by the ECB's dove speech may be enough to limit the euro's upside, but it can not keep the euro under pressure.

At 20:30 PM Beijing time, the United States will announce the latest non-agricultural employment figures and unemployment rate.

In view of the recent general improvement in US economic data, investors are more optimistic about the US's non farm data released during the day. If the data are excellent, then the US dollar will once again be boosted.

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< p > due to the advance date of the non-agricultural data release, and in the background of some other forward-looking data that had not been announced before the invitation, the ADP issued yesterday has been a market leader who has predicted that the non-agricultural good or bad will be the benchmark tonight.

And ADP's performance is so excellent that it will undoubtedly make people look forward to tonight's non farm employment report.

At present, the United States has added more than 200 thousand new jobs for 4 consecutive months, and the US economy has basically recovered from severe cold weather.

The new non-agricultural employment in April and May this year was 288 thousand and 217 thousand respectively.

It is noteworthy that in March and February, the number of new non farm jobs increased from 192 thousand and 197 thousand to 203 thousand and 222 thousand respectively.

More technical analysis, operation mentality analysis concerns potatoes Youku Zhang Wei foreign exchange video solution.

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< p > < strong > Two: technical aspect analysis < /strong > < /p >

< p > gold to us dollar strategy: < /p >

< p > gold yesterday resisted the strong attack of ADP, and there was no big downward trend. However, at present, it is near the lower edge of the interval, supporting 1321 of the interval. If the market is going down, it will continue to explore 1310.

If we support this position, we will continue to rush to the 1335 resistance position.

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< p > main strategy: 1321 near do more, target 1335, stop loss 1316 < /p >

< p > Euro versus US dollar strategy: < /p >

The trend of uncertainty in the euro P is very high. In the short term, the US interest rate decision on the non agriculture and the European Central Bank is the most concerned news in the market. If the European Central Bank announces the interest rate cut or the new easing policy will affect the short term trend of the euro, it is suggested that investors should exercise caution.

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< p > main strategy: 1.3670 near short, target 1.3600, stop loss 1.3700 < /p >

< p > pound versus US dollar strategy: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 1.7150 near short, target 1.7090, stop loss 1.7180 < /p >

< p > US dollar to Japanese yen strategy: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 101.60 near do more, target 102, stop loss 101.40 < /p >