Global Foreign Exchange Market June 30, 2014

< p > > the world's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > clothing < /a > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > shoes, < hat > net to introduce the global foreign exchange market in June 30, 2014.

< p > < strong > important news review: < /strong > < /p >

< p > last week, the foreign exchange market fluctuated around the US's first quarter GDP final value. The US dollar index continued to bear pressure. Although the Michigan consumer confidence index of June was slightly upended on Friday night, the US dollar index still failed to prevent the US dollar index from falling below 80.10 support point. In addition, the euro rose sharply in the important euro area Germany CPI data on Friday, which further depressed the US dollar index and barely reached the top of the 80 integer pass.

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< p > < strong > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > market < /a > summary: < /strong > /p >

Last week, the news on the whole is relatively light. The core data is the US first quarter GDP annual value released last Tuesday in New York. The data were greatly revised down, far below the initial value and expectations. The Federal Reserve expects the economic growth of this year to reach 2%. However, from the current level, the GDP in the first quarter fell by 2.9%, which seriously dragged the whole year's growth forecast, and 2% of the target was unsustainable. The market's expectations for the fed to raise interest rates in advance were also greatly weakened.

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< p > in addition, the US durable orders in May and consumer spending data in May showed poor performance, which brought about the prospect of the US economic rebound in the second quarter and also played a role in boosting the US dollar index.

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< p > despite the fact that last week's two data were good for the US dollar, the market reaction was flat. The US core price index reached 1.8% in May, but it still did not reach the 2% inflation target of the Federal Reserve. In addition, after the US CPI data reached 2.1% last week in May, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Yellen turned it into a "noise".

The other is last Friday night's June Michigan consumer confidence index, which has been revised up, but it is still difficult to reverse the weakness of the US dollar.

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< p > taking into account the coming of this week's super week, the market will face the dual test of the ECB interest rate resolution and the US non farm employment data in June. Whether the US dollar index will remain above the 80 integer pass is still subject to further verification by the data. "P".

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< p > strong > Japanese Yen: < /strong > /p >

< p > last morning, two data in Japan were very strong. In May, the core inflation index rose to a maximum of 32 years to 3.4% in May, which is consistent with market expectations. The Central Bank of Japan highly values the core inflation index, and it will get rid of deflation over the years as one of the objectives of the central bank. Since the beginning of April, Japan has raised the consumption tax to counter deflation, while the core CPI of May has risen far beyond the 3% target set by the Bank of Japan, showing the effectiveness of Japan's fight against deflation.

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Moreover, Japan's labour market data are encouraging. In May, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level since December 1997. This also means that a more stressful supply and demand relationship in the labor market will stimulate wage growth and increase in consumption expenditure.

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< p > two data greatly weakened the anticipation of further easing of the Japanese central bank in the late market. The yen went up and the Nikkei index went down.

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In the late P, the prospects for the continued depreciation of the yen are slim. On Tuesday, Abe Shinzo officially announced a package of economic reform plans, and the third arrows issued by Andouble stimulated the economy, which no longer involves super loose monetary policy and more economic structural changes to stimulate the development of the Japanese economy. With the initial success of Japan's economic reform, the possibility of further easing of the Japanese central bank's policy is very small. In the later stage, the US dollar and the yen are likely to go down slightly. In the technical chart, 101.16 is the key support for the US dollar against the yen. Once the effective fall is over, the depreciation of the yen will come to an end.

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< p > strong > Euro: < /strong > /p >

The poor purchasing power index of the euro area in June failed to limit the rebound of the euro. On the next few trading days, when the US index was under pressure, the euro rebounded and was better than expected by the German price index on Friday. The euro continued to bounce back to 1.3640 above the P level. In June,

Taking into account the ECB interest rate resolution this Thursday, it has limited the rebound rate of the euro. Despite the possibility that the second interest rate resolution is unlikely to be reintroduced, the market remains cautious. Once the interest rate resolution resolutely cuts interest rates, the euro may face another pressure.

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< p > < a > href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp > > strong > Gold: < /strong > /a > /p >

< p > last week, the gold rally was blocked, and the horizontal adjustment under the 1320 front-line was larger. The larger intra day volatility also indicated that the competition between the two sides was fierce. In a week, the data of the US side were mixed. A number of poor economic data made gold challenge more than 1320 times during the golden day. However, the profit making list and the more empty points at that point also pressed down the price of gold to the bottom of 1320, and finally harvested several Cross stars.

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< p > at present, the pressure on the 1320 front line is mainly suppressed by technology. With the continued weakening of US economic data, the gold price is likely to rise again. This week, the United States will announce the June ISM manufacturing index, construction expenditure in May, factory orders in May and non farm data in June. Once these data continue to be weak, gold will break through the current pattern and further challenge the 1350 frontline. Investors are advised to do much gold this week.

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< p > < strong > silver: < /strong > /p >

< p > Silver trend was better than gold last week, but last week, after the silver plate broke through the 21 integer pass, the pressure dropped, the resistance of the 21.13 line was obvious, and the support was temporarily seen in the 20.80 position. This week heavy events and data came one after another, and silver is expected to break the previous deadlock.

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