The Market Is Calm And Should Wait For The Central Bank To Play Cards Again.

< p > public data show that this week's open market has a total of 184 billion yuan < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > capital < /a > expires, except yesterday's central bank's withdrawal of funds, the realization of 57 billion yuan net capital investment.

Although yesterday's withdrawal of funds, but this week as a whole, the capital side is still dominated by loose atmosphere.

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< p > the peripheral loose a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > monetary policy < /a > in fact, it is difficult for the emerging economies including China to be calm.

From the external environment, the negative interest rate and loose monetary policy announced by the European Central Bank may also have an impact on domestic monetary policy.

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< p > Liu Dongliang, senior financial analyst at China Merchants Bank, said that the ECB's monetary policy will undoubtedly increase the attractiveness of US dollar assets and trigger global capital flows to the US dollar in the event of a rise in the US dollar and the upward trend in US dollar interest rates.

At home, it can not be said that this will trigger a large-scale capital outflow, but it may shrink the < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > foreign exchange reserves < /a >.

The reason is that cross-border capital flows into China weakened.

If this happens, it will increase the pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy. The effect of piecemeal easing policy will be discounted, and the probability of a full drop in the direction of replacing the directional easing will rise.

In June 9th, the central bank announced that the policy of directional reduction can be called "piecemeal" easing policy.

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< p > for the observation of whether the capital market is loose or not, the comment issued by the SW research institute thinks that the short term is worth cautious.

The central bank will implement the policy of "quasi agriculture and small and micro enterprises" targeting the next Monday.

The report said that the direction of the drop in the right amount of funds for the release of little effort, "the quasi directional release of about 65 billion of the funds, and a comprehensive quasi release of the funds is only 400 billion to 500 billion yuan", considering IPO restart may hedge some funds, the impact of the drop in the gold face is still limited.

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< p > from yesterday's bond market reaction relatively calm down, there is no policy driven upward momentum.

The market seems to have reached a crossroads.

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< p > the report of Shenyin and Wanguo believes that the short-term domestic capital and fundamentals remain the risk of interest rate rebounding. In the long run, however, this year, the policy easing is still small but strong, and there is still a possibility of further easing in the latter stage. Interest rates can still be downhill.

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< p > from the interbank offered rate in Shanghai yesterday, the interest rates of various varieties remained stable and the capital side remained loose.

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< p > the view from traders is similar to that of Shenyin and Wanguo.

In the interview, most of them believed that due to the favorable early start of the targeted easing, the market reaction from the second day of the news release was dull.

However, in the medium to long term, the role of the stimulus policy is gradually emerging. Driven by the rebound of the economy and CPI, the long term interest rate will rise more strongly, pushing the interest rate curve steeper.

In the short term, the possibility that the main interest rate will continue to rise will rise with the fluctuation of funds at the last half year.

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< p > the central bank's cards are not exhausted.

Liu Dongliang said that playing cards and playing cards are two different things, but loose expectations still exist.

He believes that the factors that affect whether or not to continue playing cards include: whether the macroeconomic stability is stable, whether the risk of debt is exposed to large scale and the change of external liquidity.

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< p > in short, the fundamentals and the economic situation will continue to change. The central bank's "prescription" will continue to grasp the balance between easing and tightening.

From the point of view, easing is going on.

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