The Ministry Of Commerce Predicts That Consumption Growth Will Fall To 13% This Year, Making It Difficult To Become The First Engine.

Consumption of P as the first engine of economic growth may be hard to protect this year.

Yesterday, the consumer market development report released by the Ministry of Commerce in 2013 (hereinafter referred to as the "report") said that the annual consumption growth rate will continue to fall, and the annual total retail sales of social consumer goods will grow at around 13%, which may lead to a decline in the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth.

This also means that the expected target of consumption growth of 14.5% this year will be reduced.

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Zhao Ping, editor in chief of the report and deputy director of the Department of consumer economics of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the macro-economy is still on the rise in 2013, but the rate of recovery has declined. The economy will remain steady and grow at a moderate pace, which will inevitably lead to moderate growth in investment and consumption.

In addition, the construction of new urbanization will further promote the release of consumption potential.

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"P >", but at the same time, considering that there will be no extended consumption policy throughout the year, consumption growth in the whole year lacks policy impetus support. On the other hand, this year's domestic economic growth will not rise sharply, which will have a greater pressure on the growth of income, and will not enhance the consumption power in the past year. In addition, under the spirit of central advocacy of saving, public consumption and luxury consumption bubbles will be squeezed out.

Therefore, consumption growth in 2013 will mainly depend on endogenous driving force, which is much more difficult than that in 2012. It is estimated that the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods will remain at about 13% throughout the year.

Zhao Ping said.

This is slightly lower than last year's growth rate of 14.3%.

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< p > the report predicts that the demand for high-end liquor may be seriously depressed this year and the consumption of food and beverage will also slow down considerably.

With the construction of affordable housing and the demand for housing in two or three tier cities, the growth of furniture, building and decoration materials consumption will remain at around 20%, and this will become the biggest bright spot of consumption growth this year.

However, compared with the consumption luminescent facilities, such as communications equipment, gold and silver jewellery with a growth rate of over 40% in the past year, the consumption growth of furniture, building materials and decoration materials, which accounts for only about 1% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, will not play a significant role in promoting the growth of total consumption.

Recently, the "gold grab" market brought about by the continuous decline of international gold price (1384.80, -2.10, -0.15%) can only affect the momentary rise of consumption of gold, silver and jewellery, and it is difficult to sustain a rebound.

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< p > it is noteworthy that the report also points out that, from the growth trend of investment and consumption this year, consumption as the first driving force of economic growth "three carriages" is hard to guarantee.

Zhao Ping believes that the impulse of investment growth this year is far greater than that of consumption. This year's government work report stresses that the role of investment in promoting economic growth can not be underestimated.

Under the background of urbanization, this year has been the implementation of a positive fiscal policy for fifth consecutive years. Although monetary policy is still stable, M2 has exceeded 10 billion yuan. The annual growth of investment environment is better than consumption, which may lead to the contribution rate of investment to GDP is higher than consumption.

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< p > Zhao Ping suggested that the primary task of implementing the strategy of expanding consumption in China should be to improve the top-level design and formulate the national consumption strategy plan as soon as possible so that China's consumption policy will be changed from temporary measures to temporary policies to long-term stable consumption policies, and a long-term mechanism for expanding consumption will be established step by step.

Huo Jianguo, President of the Ministry of Commerce, also said that the service industry is an important pivot to supplement consumption growth. Compared with commodity consumption, the development level of service consumption is still low, and the development potential is enormous.

The next step is to start with local pilot projects and gradually increase the openness of banking, telecommunications, insurance and other service sectors, thereby freeing the potential consumption demand of residents.

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