Expert Perspective: 2012 Should Not Be Taken Lightly In Response To Inflation.

　 Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, should not be taken lightly in 2012.

2012 affecting prices Rise There are still many factors, especially the long-term cost of land, labor and environmental protection. This year, when local governments change, the enthusiasm of all regions to promote urbanization and industrialization is very high, and inflation can not be taken lightly. These problems are intertwined and superimposed, so that macroeconomic regulation and control are faced with more "dilemma" choices.

From the international perspective, the evolution of the European debt crisis, the uncertainty and emerging of the US economic recovery. market Economic growth deceleration and other problems all exist. If these factors are added together, the external environment will not be good. More importantly, the international economy is changing rapidly and the development trend is not very accurate at present. Therefore, we should prepare for some of these situations.

Judging from the domestic economy, China's own economic growth is still very large, and the price situation has improved, but there are also uncertainties, such as the impact of the real estate trend on the national economy. Affected by the international economic situation, export growth has slowed down, and downward pressure on economic growth has increased significantly.

　 Wei Jianguo, Secretary General of China International Economic Exchange Center, 2012 is the best period to adjust the structure of foreign trade.

Exports declined sharply in 2012. We estimate our country in 2012. Trade The growth rate will be single digits, unlike the previous two digit growth, and most importantly, our exports will gradually decline. Therefore, we must make preparations for the trade deficit in 2012, but this is also the best period for us to adjust our foreign trade structure.

China's GDP will drop in 2012, the growth rate is estimated to be 8%, but the 8% quality is better, the level is higher, the connotation is different. We must speed up transformation, import and export no longer fight consumption, environmental pollution and labor costs, should turn to service trade, if processing trade is to solve the problem of migrant workers, service trade is to solve the problem of College Students' employment. At the same time, we should take advantage of this opportune moment to go out. Enterprises must hold together and fight alone. At the same time, we must make good use of tourism resources, and tourism is also a service trade.

　　 Ma Jun, chief economist of Greater China in Deutsche Bank, 2012: China's economy decelerated to recovery

Due to the downturn in real estate investment and exports, China's economy will continue to slow down in the first quarter of this year, and the growth rate of annualized GDP will be reduced to 6%-7%. In the whole year, China's GDP growth was 8.3%, lower than that of 9.1% in 2011.

Economic growth continued downward in the fourth quarter of last year, but inflation began to fall, and inflation fell into expectation of loosening policy. Therefore, it can be expected that the growth of the annulus economy can be resumed in the two quarter, compared with the three quarter of the year. The recovery in the two or three quarter was mainly based on the improvement of economic growth in Europe, the loosening of domestic monetary tightening, and the support of fiscal policy for some public investment and consumption.

The risk is not nonexistent. The international situation itself is uncertain. Europe will be very bad in the first quarter of this year. It will begin to recover from the two quarter of the ring. But in case the European situation is not as optimistic as we think, and Europe continues downward, China will indeed have bigger risks in the second half of the year.