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Reinhard: The Key Supporting Positions Are &Nbsp; 141.50&Nbsp; -&Nbsp; 139.50&Nbsp; Cents.

2011/1/31 14:54:00 129

New York cotton

This week, the market has been rising strongly and building new heights, which is almost alarming.

Tuesday's market volatility was particularly strong, and the 11 year March contract expanded to 10 cents / pound.

The market is crazy this week, but there are no fundamental changes.

To put it simply, the market is short selling, and for a variety of reasons, the squeeze on the bear is bigger than the bull market.

As we all know, one of the main bullish factors of the market is still the huge non pricing contract position of the textile mill.

The latest cotton pricing report shows that the 11 year March contract was not priced at 23016 hands, but only 931, which is the position of January 21st.

Judging from this week's trend, you will think that the next report will be greatly reduced.

In addition, it is worth mentioning that the actual price is not fixed.

Sale

Numbers must drop.

This is because many textile factories holding cotton parts have already bought many bulls, but they have not pferred them to cotton producers.

Nevertheless, the net position to be priced should still be relatively large. Therefore, it is still a headache.

In general, the empty head still feels pressure, and they have to fight an unbalanced market.

At this time, however, there is no obvious demand for short supply.

Therefore, in the next few weeks or months, there will be a downward trend in the market.

Technical side: the 11 year March contract fell to the lower end of the uplink target (the lowest 177 cents), which started with a major breakthrough (153 cents).

The short-term and medium-term support is 157 cents.

If it breaks through, the price is expected to drop to 152 cents -145.00 cents.

The key support is 141.50 - 139.50 cents.

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Us: the US Department of agriculture's latest cotton ginning report shows that almost all American cotton has been rolled out.

As of January 15th, there were 17580000 bales of cotton ginning.

All cotton production state cotton is all rolled out, only Dezhou exceptions, California's Pima cotton processing is also coming to an end.

With the cotton processing season coming to an end, trading in the spot market is coming to an end. At least, sales from growers to cotton traders are coming to an end.

In the coming months, any spot trading will be mainly confined to Cotton Traders and cotton traders. Unless there are some very large export contracts, even this market trend is mild compared with recent history.

India: as of January 23rd, the total quantity of cotton arrived was 17 million 670 thousand packs (170 kg / bag), compared with 16 million 500 thousand packages in the same period last year.

The largest increase in the number of goods was +45% and Andhra Pradesh (20%).

Therefore, the market thinks that this year's output will exceed 29 million 720 thousand last year.

The output forecast of many institutions in India is still contradictory.

SIMA South India factory Association predicts that the final output will be 30 million 900 thousand bales. The CAB Cotton Advisory Committee of India predicts that the output will be 32 million 900 thousand packages, and the CAI Cotton Association of India will forecast 34 million 750 thousand production.

Local

Cotton ginning factory

The price is 50000 rupees / CANDY, or about 140.15 cents per pound.

Considering the current cotton level in New York, the price of India is still very low.

But in a volatile market, there is no doubt that what price is cheap and what is expensive.

China: cotton futures are high in Zhengzhou commodity exchange this week.

The new resistance level is about 32600 yuan / ton, which is only 1000 yuan / ton higher than the highest point in November.

The next few trading days must break through this price and the market will maintain a good momentum of growth. Otherwise, the market may fall back to about 30000 yuan.

And the futures market is strong enough to echo each other. Domestic spot cotton prices continue to strengthen, and the growth rate of high-grade cotton prices exceeds 1000 yuan / ton.

Large textile mills continue to replenish the goods, while smaller textile mills continue to buy them because of their tight funds.

We expect that China's demand for foreign cotton will continue to be good, especially for high-grade cotton.

Polyester prices also rose 500 yuan / ton, yarn prices also rise.

We wish every reader a happy lunar new year and a healthy, happy, successful and prosperous year of the rabbit.

May you be happy and prosperous!