In December, The Credit Increment Forecast Was 460 Billion Yuan.

The November financial data released by the central bank in December 10th showed that China increased RMB 564 billion yuan in November.

Many experts interviewed by reporters thought that

Credit will fall sharply in December.

The macro research report given by Societe Generale in December 25th estimated that the new loan in December was 460 billion (median forecast, the same below).

According to the report, from the perspective of balanced credit supply and meeting the needs of the real economy, the possibility of more than 7 trillion and 500 billion new credit is very large throughout the year.

Wu Yonggang, a banking analyst at Guotai Junan, told the daily economic news reporter that their forecasts were more prudent. He predicted that credit in December would be 350 billion.

Chen Yong, a macroeconomic analyst at Huatai Securities, told reporters that the volume of credit in December would definitely decrease. He predicted that the new credit in December would be 200 billion ~3000 billion.

Some experts are not optimistic.

Guo Tianyong, director of the China banking research center of Central University of Finance and Economics, told reporters of the daily economic news that the credit in December will have a marked decline. He said that from past experience, because of financial considerations, banks usually do not want to issue loans at the end of the year. In addition, the regulators also stressed that banks should complete the credit growth plan at the beginning of the year. Therefore, banks will not release a large number of new loans in December, and the credit in December will be estimated at about 200 billion or so in December.

"The growth rate in November is too high, and there will be a marked decline in December, and new credit will not exceed expectations."

Li Wei, global research economist at Standard Chartered Bank, also said that the total credit volume may be around 7 trillion and 600 billion yuan a year, and "not too much". According to their understanding, there will be very little credit in December.

He said, "banks are more likely to reduce new loans on a large scale in accordance with the wishes of regulators."

It is reported that as of December 24th, the country's new credit in 2010 was 7 trillion and 990 billion.

Liu Yuhui, director of the China economic evaluation center of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (micro-blog), told reporters on "daily economic news" that 7 trillion and 500 billion does not mean that we must die to keep our target. In December, the new credit loan increased to 500 billion ~6000 billion.

Credit structural launch in December

Where will the limited funds go? Can the normal capital demand of the enterprises be satisfied?

Earlier this month, the CBRC had said that commercial banks should also ensure the normal loan demand of individuals and enterprises while ensuring prudent management of credit risks. In particular, they should ensure that construction, renewal projects and normal liquidity of enterprises, personal loan demand and other daily financial services are not affected.

Yang Jianzhong, vice president of Shenzhen branch of China Merchants Bank, told reporters that loans in December were relatively tight. Their loans were mainly invested in the normal turnover of working capital and the procurement of raw materials by enterprises.

Wu Yonggang also said that banks will protect the normal demand of enterprises.

He said that as long as loans are properly distributed, they should be able to meet the normal needs of enterprises.

Guo Tianyong also told reporters that from the perspective of the operation of enterprises, the demand for loans from many enterprises to the end of the year will be significantly weakened. The new investment generally starts at the beginning of the year, and the credit demand will increase at the beginning of the year, so the credit shrinkage will not be affected in December.

For the market rumors of fixed assets loans stopped lending news, Li Wei said that little impact.

Chen Yong said that in December loans, the medium and long-term loans will still occupy a certain proportion, because some projects can not stop, if we want to stop, "from the sequencing, we will stop the demand first. Medium and long-term loans are a pit of radish, many enterprises use money, and the main bargaining power of medium and long-term loans is relatively high, such as state-owned enterprises and local governments."

He said that 200 billion ~3000 billion can not meet the needs of the real economy, so market capital interest rates soared very fast.

Last Saturday, the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate for Renminbi deposits and loans of financial institutions.

Experts have said that raising interest rates will not affect credit in December.

Yang Jianzhong said that the rate hike is expected, and Wu Yonggang also believes that interest rate increases will mainly affect credit next year.