Experts Say Exports Will Slow Down &Nbsp Next Year, And Enterprises Must Prepare Lessons For "Stock Competition".

　　 Customs The data released by the General Administration on 10 may show that China's import and export value reached US $283 billion 760 million in November, an increase of 36.2% over the same period last year, setting a record of 273 billion 90 million US dollars in September this year, of which November Exit 153 billion 330 million US dollars, an increase of 34.9%. However, looking forward to the export situation next year, although the industry's forecast is different, experts generally believe that next year's export growth will be difficult to achieve this year's level.

"To a certain extent, it is due to the weakening of the cardinal effect." Wang Tao, an economist at UBS Securities, pointed out that after China's 16% decline in 2009, China has all the major players this year. market Exports showed strong recovery, rising by nearly 30%. Data show that export growth has peaked in the middle of this year, and then slowed down as external demand weakened.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, also said that the high export growth in 2010 was restorative and not sustainable. In 2009, the total export volume decreased from 14307 billion US dollars in 2008 to 12017 billion US dollars, and the base changed greatly. From the current situation, the scale of exports in 2010 has been very large. Considering the large base and the relatively full release of export potential, the export growth in 2011 is expected to decrease significantly.

In addition, "with the rising inflation rate, overseas economies will have to withdraw from stimulus policies next year, resulting in weaker demand, which is also an important reason for the growth of export growth next year." CITIC investment chief macroeconomic analyst Wei Fengchun said.

"Slower growth is not necessarily a bad thing." Pei Ke, CEO of global resources, which keeps track of China's foreign trade situation, said in an interview with reporters that in some industries, the "incremental competition" pattern of export enterprises could be turned into "stock competition", which prompted enterprises to have greater power to speed up the upgrading of products and help improve the image and unit price of export enterprises.

This year, in order to adapt to the rapid changes in consumer preferences, many overseas buyers, including the large department store, Sears, are seeking new suppliers, even in the case of stable supply, to satisfy consumers' high demand for cost-effective products.

In fact, the business community is also prepared for this. An electronics manufacturer in Guangdong told reporters that in the new complex competition environment, overseas buyers no longer focus solely on product quality, but began to pay more attention to product uniqueness and brand reputation. To this end, they have intensified their brand publicity efforts. "Although the difficulty of promotion is very high at present, some achievements have been achieved."

According to Pei analysis, the current export enterprises are taking measures to expand the new market on the one hand. Since last year, the number of Chinese enterprises exporting to new markets such as South Africa and Dubai has increased significantly. On the other hand, due to the relative importance of product function and quality in the selection factor of overseas buyers, export enterprises are increasingly paying attention to establishing brand image among overseas buyers.

The head of Guangzhou Scud Digital Technology Co., Ltd. frankly stated that establishing a brand on the basis of maintaining quality is more helpful for enterprises to negotiate with foreign businessmen. "Brand building requires good after-sales service, and now no longer simply attracts customers at low prices".

At the same time, due to the rising price of raw materials and the appreciation of the renminbi, the effort of enterprises in cost control is almost unprecedented. Recently, in the "2010 China's ten major management practices" announced in Beijing, cost innovation has become one of the most respected managerial skills and experiences of enterprises and industry experts.

On the other hand, "with the gradual increase of domestic demand, many export enterprises have put their vision back to China and actively expand the domestic market." Wei Fengchun said.

Wei Fengchun also said that although the export growth rate is expected to fall next year, it is expected that absolute increment will not be significantly reduced this year, but the growth rate will fall.

Wang Tao further predicted that China's market share in international trade will continue to rise, and next year's merchandise trade surplus will rise from about 200 billion US dollars this year to about 210 billion US dollars. Zhang Liqun pointed out that an increase of 9.2% in 2008 is likely to become the average level of medium and long term export growth.