Gem: Don'T Crush On Me. I'M Just A Myth.

Don't crush on me. I'm just a myth. Use this sentence to describe the present. Gem That's more appropriate.

In June 29th, the gem index plunged 7.54% to 913.31 points, hitting a new low since the launch of the gem index. The lowest point in the gem also reached 912.54 points, including 12 GEM companies, including Shenzhou taeyue, Nanfeng and Ding Han technologies.

"From the overall market perspective, although the overall valuation has dropped sharply, the scissors difference between the big and small stocks has not decreased significantly. In the next stage, if the market wants to be stable, the risk of structural valuation between the big and small plates must be fully released, and the market needs to rectify the unbalanced market in the past. Wang Mingli, a strategist in the sky, thinks.

Statistical data show that as of June 25th, the relative excess return of large cap stocks was -39.32%, while the relative excess return of small cap stocks still amounted to 64.80%.

The tide of lifting the ban is coming.

High valuations remain Gem Lingering shadows.

The risk of overvaluation before the overall market has been fully released over the past two months. However, structural imbalance between large and small cap stocks is increasingly becoming a major risk factor.

"The digestion of this risk requires the market to brew a correction market. No matter how to rectify the deviation, the gem must undergo a stock price correction process." Wang Mingli said. "The most extreme way is that small and medium-sized shares continue to fall, but small cap stocks will fall even more."

According to the website data of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, as of June 29th, the average price earnings ratio of the gem as a whole was 58.21 times that of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which was more than 26.06 times the average price earnings ratio of the Shenzhen board, and at the same time, it was significantly higher than the average market earnings ratio of 31.44 times the overall market.

Another reason for the collapse of the gem is the lifting of the ban.

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Reporters noted that Gem The new round of placing the sale of part of the lifting of the ban tide has arrived. Under the situation of weakening trend and high valuation risk of gem, institutional impulse is strong, and the stock price pressure of related companies is huge.

Among them, in June and July, a total of 20 GEM companies were placed under the lifting of the allotment shares, which were five time nodes in June 21st, June 28th, July 21st, July 27th and July 27th, and 20 GEM companies had lifted about 92 million 138 thousand shares.

In June 28th, the 4 GEM companies that had just lifted the ban, Yu diamond and Hai Lanxin in June 29th both closed at the end of the day, while the Tianlong Group and the three Chuan shares continued to decline for more than 10% days in two consecutive trading days. In particular, the three consecutive days of Hai Lanxin plunged, the decline has more than 20%.

As of June 29th, in the four GEM companies that had lifted the shares under the above network, except for the fact that he still received the price, Yu diamond, Tianlong Group and three Chuan share three companies had already fallen below the issue price, and received 18.92 yuan, 23.80 yuan and 45.68 yuan, respectively, which were 11.26%, 17.36% and 6.78% lower than the 21.32 yuan, 28.8 yuan and 49 yuan issue price respectively.

Ping An Securities strategy researcher Cai Dagui believes that the high growth of the gem in the past does not necessarily mean high growth in the future. At present, the overall valuation of the gem is undoubtedly high, and there will be cash in cash after the lifting of the ban.

Xu Haiyang, a securities analyst at Japan Securities, said that at present, the risk of small cap stocks being represented by gem represents a real risk.

Xu Haiyang believes that under the background of the overall economic environment is not optimistic, the sound operation and sustainable growth of small and medium-sized shares will inevitably be affected. What's more, the stock price of related companies has gone up and largely overestimated future growth expectations.

Li Maoyu, an analyst with Changjiang Securities, said that the downward trend of the economy is asymmetric for all industries in the overall macroeconomic downturn. From the perspective of large and small disks, the performance volatility of small cap stocks is significantly higher than that of large cap stocks, and the overvalued value of small cap stocks is higher than that of large cap stocks with valuation advantages.

Up to now, there has been no clear solution to the tight liquidity situation, and the speed of issuance of large cap stocks has not been reduced, the refinancing of bank stocks is imminent, and the full circulation environment that will be realized in the second half of this year. In terms of trend, A share market is hard to return to high valuation.

In addition, statistics show that from the 174 week statistics since 2007, the average value premium of the index 50 relative to the 50 index is 2.245 times, the maximum value is 3.73 times that of April 2010, and the minimum value is 1.33 times of the beginning of November 2008.

Up to now, the valuation premium of small cap stocks for large cap stocks is 3.162 times, still in a relatively high position in history, while the valuation of small cap stocks is usually between 1.5 times and 2.5 times the value of large cap stocks. From this we can see that the current valuation of small cap stocks has a regression trend.

So how much is the return of small cap stocks?

In this regard, Xu Haiyang believes that if the average value of the difference between the size and size of the stock market has been calculated since 2007, that is, the current 3.162 times to 2.245 times the return, the small cap stocks should fall at 40.85%. If calculated in a more optimistic picture, that is, the valuation premium of small cap returns to the upper limit of the premium multiple density interval, that is, the 2.5 premium level, the average small cap stocks still need to fall by 26.48%.